The Fresno Bee has the latest on that bursting housing bubble. "Some home builders, trying to keep home prices down and responding to a possibly slower and highly competitive market in 2006, are planning to unveil new, more affordable designs. 'If [builders] see things taper off, they could shift the product a couple price points to midmarket or entry-market homes,' said John Karevoll."

"Lower-priced offerings would be welcome in Fresno County, where the percentage of families that could afford a median-priced home sank to record lows in 2005, the pinnacle of a five-year real estate boom in the central San Joaquin Valley."

"Rich Wathen expects more competition this year among builders, and without the escalating prices that frustrated many home buyers the last few years. 'Air is coming out of the bubble,' he said. 'There will be a lot of competition, and more as the year goes on. That will definitely have an impact on sales and prices.'"

"How much of an impact? Wathen thinks sales in the central San Joaquin Valley could fall 10% to 15%. Developers say the long waiting lists and campouts at model home sites that characterized the past few years have mostly evaporated. 'We were allowing contingency buyers over the last three years, but in October, November and December we got a rash of cancellations as homes were getting completed,' said Steve Lutton, division president of Lennar Homes."

"The greatest increase was in Fresno County, where cancellations doubled. Karevoll acknowledged the dangers of trying to assess this real estate market. '2006 will be an interesting year for the number crunchers,' he said. 'The arrows in the grass are pointing in all different directions. I've never seen the measures of uncertainty so high,' he said."