Lots of predictions out today. "U.S. home sales will drop in 2006 as mortgage rates climb and house prices inch up at rates far below those notched last year, a trade group said on Tuesday, noting the long-awaited housing slowdown has begun. The outlook from the NAR came shortly after luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc., widely seen as a bellwether for the housing market, slashed its sales forecast for the second time in three months."

"'Sometimes people lose sight of the fact that real estate is cyclical,' the realtors' chief economist, David Lereah, said. Construction too will tumble to levels not seen since before 2004, Lereah said. He forecast 2006 housing starts at 1.87 million units, down 9.3 percent from the 2.06 million in 2005."

"Sales of new homes should fall as well, down 8.5 percent to 1.17 million units from a 2005 record of 1.28 million, Lereah said."

"Gary Shilling, the Sage of Springfield, noted economist and contrarian..writing in Forbes, forecasts, are you sitting down? that 'the current housing weakness will develop into a full-scale rout.'"

"He goes on: 'Median home prices need to fall 29 percent to return to their normal relationship with rents and 35 percent to relink with the Consumer Price Index.' Finally, some good news: He's predicting only a 20 percent decline in house prices."

The New York post. "Homeowners in the New York area should brace themselves for more bad news in 2006, with lower sales prices. The city's metropolitan housing market, including nearby suburbs in New Jersey and Westchester County, will experience a 2.3 percent price dip this year, according to a major mortgage lending company."

"Other areas in the tri-state region expected to cool off include Nassau/Suffolk counties, with a median home price of $410,000, showing a 4.5 percent fall; Connecticut's Bridgeport/Stamford area, with a median price of $490,000, cooling off by 1 percentage point."

"In New York City, Mayor Michael Bloomberg predicts an even more dismal scenario for his constituents. The mayor's numbers crunchers expect home prices in Gotham to dive 10 percent, while sales of homes will fall 14 percent in the next few years."

Of course it's easy to predict a fall with news like this about. "This Saturday is your chance to buy a Centex Home in almost any Centex Sacramento area neighborhood and save $50,000 to $150,000 on selected homes. New construction or one of our ready-to-move-in homes, it doesn't matter."