Industry Consolidation Amid Record Unaffordability
The NAHB reports on a new record. "Higher interest rates and rising home prices caused nationwide housing affordability to slip for a fourth consecutive quarter to its lowest level on record. 'The latest HOI shows that only 41 percent of new and existing homes that were sold during the final quarter of 2005 were affordable to families earning the national median income,' said David Pressly."
"'This is down from 43.2 percent of homes sold in the third quarter and 52 percent of homes sold in the final quarter of 2004.'"
"At the bottom of the affordability scale was Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif., where just 2.3 percent of homes sold in the fourth quarter were affordable to families earning the area’s median household income of $54,500. And as usual, the bottom of the affordability scale was dominated by large California cities, including Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, and Stockton. New York-White Plains-Wayne, N.Y.-N.J. rounded out the list of the five least-affordable major housing markets."
And the Orange County Register reports that some incomes are coming down. "Irvine-based BNC Mortgage, a lender specializing in home loans for consumers with impaired credit, plans to lay off 95 workers by March in two Irvine offices, according to state regulators."
"BNC is the second mortgage subsidiary of New York's Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. to face job cuts in as many months as the lending industry reels from a drop in demand for home loans and higher interest rates. Last month, Littleton, Colo.-based Aurora Loan Services LLC said it will close its Irvine office by April 28. Nearly 100 local jobs will be eliminated when the Von Karman Avenue operations center closes."
There are rumors of 'massive' layoffs at Option One, H&R Blocks' lending arm, but this is all that's known. "H&R Block Mortgage Corp. is closing its Trevose, Pa., office in a move that is expected to cause 97 layoffs, according to a notification the company sent to the Pennsylvania Bureau of Workforce Development."
"The office will close April 24. Many of the employees, 44, are loan officers. H&R Block Mortgage Corp. is a wholly owned subsidiary of Option One Mortgage Corp. of Irvine, Calif."
Update. "Option One and H&R Block Mortgage are consolidating a number of operations to better compete in the aggressive operating environment that has developed over the past year. These actions include consolidation of Option One branch offices and, within H&R Block Mortgage, the closing of small financial centers and consolidation of regional call centers. The actions will reduce staffing by about 600 positions."
From Inman News. "As real estate industry layoffs continue and the toll mounts, some industry experts predict a toll of as much as 40 percent of existing jobs lost by the end of the year. 'Reductions in the mortgage banking industry are somewhat due to the end of the refinancing boom,' said (economist) Brian Carey. 'You're probably talking 25,000 to 50,000 jobs lost in the real estate finance industry in 2006.'"
"Because real estate brokerages are operated differently, that part of the real estate industry will be affected differently, Carey predicted. 'I would look for a drop-off in their income,' Carey said of real estate agents and brokers. 'Their incomes will go down and a lot of them will turn to another line of work,' Carey said."
"According to the NAR, there are 1.2 million Realtors in the United States. 'Let's say there's only room for half the Realtors. It could be 500,000, it could be 700,000,' Dr. Delores Conway, at USC said. 'In the margin you would have people moving out of the industry. I would be surprised if it was more than 30 or 40 percent.' The director said that for real estate agents, 'it's not so much losing their jobs as changing their jobs.'"
"'A friend of mine's husband is a Realtor and he is going into auto sales,' said Conway."