The Arizona State University has some numbers out for the Phoenix area. "With 5,455 recorded sales in February 2006, the greater Phoenix resale market has rebounded slightly from the 5,260 sales recorded in January 2006. However, it is well below the 7,935 sales recorded a year ago and the 10,700 sales of August 2005. The 2006 year-to-date is 10,715, in contrast to 17,290 for 2005."

"'The basic direction of the local real estate market will probably not become clearer until into the second quarter,' said Jay Q. Butler, director of the Arizona Real Estate Center.The primary news of last year's housing market was the rapid rise in the median home price from $194,000 in January to $260,000 in December. Since the record of $263,000 was set in September, the growth rate had been disappearing, with the median price being $257,000 in January. A slight re-emergence of price growth occurred in February at $265,000, while it was $200,000 for a year ago."

"'This is not too unexpected,' said Butler. 'As housing markets slow, the move-up market tends to dominate activity with higher-priced homes. For example, in January 2006, 23 percent of the sales were in $300,000 to $499,999, while it was 25 percent in February.'"

"Affordability continues to be an issue. Based on an 85 percent loan-to-value, the monthly mortgage payment for the median price home increased from $945 to $1,325."

"Phoenix recorded sales decreased from 2,235 sales to 1,680 sales. The Scottsdale resale home market declined from 635 to 400 recorded sales. Mesa's resale housing market declined from 945 to 655 sales. Glendale decreased from 545 to 435 sales. The Sun City resale market fell from 150 to 100 sales."

"Resale activity in Sun City West also fell from 70 to 60 sales. The resale market in Gilbert decreased from 495 to 290 sales. Chandler's resale market slowed from 560 to 400 recorded sales. The Tempe resale market decreased from 165 to 120 sales. Avondale's resale market fell from 170 to 110 sales. The El Mirage resale market decreased from 120 to 60 sales. Goodyear declined from 150 to 80 recorded resales. The Surprise resale market decreased from 345 sales to 200 sales."

"For the last year, the ever higher home prices have drawn people into the market based on continued optimistic growth assumptions about future prices. Thus, both investors and owner-occupants have been buying on future expectations about continued appreciation to provide for profit and/or re-financing opportunities. If home prices continue to be stable or even decline in some areas, owners may increasingly bring homes to the market, in order to lock in profits."

"'As prices have stagnated since August, inventory levels have continued to grow, as we suspect an increasing number of speculators are placing their homes on the market,' Raymond James analyst Rick Murray wrote to clients Monday. From a months-supply perspective, six months of inventory were on the market at the end of February, compared with 1.6 months in August, noted Murrary."

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