'Builders Have Been Borrowing Demand From The Future'
CNN Money has this on home loans. "Mortgage applications fell last week as lower interest rates failed to spur demand for loans to purchase homes, an industry trade group said Wednesday. The MBA's seasonally adjusted purchase mortgage index decreased 1.9 percent to 400.8 from the previous week's 408.7. The index, considered to be a timely gauge of U.S. home sales, was also below its year-ago level of 440.0."
A homebuilder had this report out. "William Lyon Homes today reported the Company's 2005 fourth quarter and fiscal year operating results. The number of homes closed for the year ended December 31, 2005 was a decrease of 8% as compared to the year ended December 31, 2004. Net new home orders for the three months ended December 31, 2005 were 460, a decrease of 7%. During the fourth quarter of 2005, the average sales price of homes down 7% as compared to $570,000 for the comparable period a year ago."
"During the last half of the fourth quarter of 2005, the Company began to experience some slowing in new orders in many of its markets, increases in cancellation rates and increasing pricing pressures from several of its competitors who initiated aggressive incentive and discounting programs."
"This softening in the Company's markets is continuing into 2006 as the Company's orders have declined for the first eight weeks of 2006 by 31% over the comparable period in 2005. Cancellation rates have increased in this period in 2006 to 26% from 12% in the comparable period in 2005. The Company is also seeing increases in its standing and unsold completed inventory in 2006 as compared to 2005."
In Phoenix, Arizona. "The Valley's slowing housing market may mean the buyer is king again, but that didn't stop new-home builders from raising prices for their houses last month. The average price of a new home in February rose 1.2 percent from the previous month. Builders were using incentives to keep buyers motivated. Those incentives ranged from 3.75 percent interest financing options, to free pools, to furniture allowances and free 'option' packages."
"The average price of new-home sales that closed in January dropped to $306,000, down from $310,000 in December. RL Brown said he'll be looking closely at sales activity in new developments in the far reaches of the Valley as an indicator of the local market's strength. 'They moved out there originally because they saved a lot of money (even if it required a longer commute),' he said. 'If the new buyers can't save a lot of money, they may not make that same trade-off.'"
From The Street.com. "Ken Rosen, a University of California-Berkeley real estate professor and hedge fund manager, believes a 25% to 30% total drop in new-home sales is possible over the next three years, and that builders will be meaningfully hurt this time around. 'It all depends on how much sales and orders slow and how much earnings are hurt by the margin squeeze we expect in 2007 and 2008,' Rosen says. 'I don't believe that if housing activity is down 25% to 30% in the next two to three years ... that (builders') earnings can hold up at current levels.'"
"What the bulls don't understand, Rosen says, is that builders 'have been borrowing demand from the future over the last few years.' Easy credit amid loose lending standards helped fuel much of the boom, he says."