The Aspen Times has a rare report on that Colorado town. "Getting the straight poop on Aspen real estate from most brokers is impossible. Unable to get at the truth, I contacted my old friend Turner Hicks to shed light on the local real estate market."

"Q: Do you think owning a house in Aspen is a good investment? Turner: No."

"Q: Ah, could you be more specific? T: You can read as well as I can. The City of Aspen 2005 Cost of Living Index Study revealed that real estate in Aspen has appreciated by only about 2.5 percent annually for the past six years. That's far below the national average of almost 12 percent per year over the same time period. Those trend lines haven't inverted since the silver crash."

"That report you cite; nobody gives it any weight. It's obvious that our local governments don't know anything about numbers, finance, or economics. The signs of a booming real estate market are everywhere. Those paltry appreciation figures can't be correct. T: You're right. Actual appreciation was likely less than reported. The city simply compared average home sales prices over the years. But, Aspenites are addicted to home improving. Those never-ending upgrades and remodels figure into a rising average for home prices, but their costs are not real appreciation."

"Q: You talked then about how Aspen was no longer an unknown quantity, thus the speculative qualities of real estate here were crap. Aspen is becoming more like every other small city with its chain stores, traffic jams, and even the same types of crime emerging. Aspen was no longer setting trends, but began chasing them. Has anything changed in that regard?"

"T: No, those tendencies towards conformity continue. Listen to the town's leaders; the common argument is that we have to do this, that and the other thing to compete with everyone else. And, like everywhere else, we are now designing and building homes that will only exacerbate our sluggishness."

"R: For example? T: Well, there is a simple axiom in real estate: Land appreciates in value; sticks and stones and even gold-plated bathroom fixtures don't. Manmade components of real estate lose value with each passing day. Even steadily escalating replacement costs (you know, inflation) are usually not enough to offset the natural deterioration and obsolescence of whatever is 'in' now."

"Back when properties in Aspen were truly appreciating at astronomical rates, houses were relatively inexpensive in comparison with the cost of the land. That trend is completely haywire now. Like modern suburban development, most Aspen properties are comprised of houses built lot line to lot line that cost up to three times as much as the underlying land that they sit on."

"In this scenario, even if the land appreciates at a brisk 10 percent a year, the entire property only increases one-quarter that much, or 2.5 percent. Factor in normal wear and tear on the buildings, and you can easily end up with a property worth less than it was the year before, even in a strong economy!"

"R: What about second homes? T: They'll be the first to go since they are totally discretionary. I think a shift is already occurring and manifesting itself in the popularity of time shares. They are incredibly lousy investments, but people are willing to risk the smaller outlay at this point in the game. At the same time, this temporary manic rush into time shares inflates all local real estate prices to unsustainable levels."

"R: So, are you predicting a crash, then? T: Well, I will say this: It's more likely to occur when everyone at the party is intoxicated."