Industry Needs To Control Speculative Building: NAHB
The homebuilder data should be out by now. "U.S. home builder sentiment declined in March, the National Association of Home Builders reported on Wednesday, in response to rising mortgage rates. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market index slid to 55 in March, seasonally adjusted, from February's downwardly revised revised 56."
"NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders attributed March’s slight downshift to eroding affordability conditions as well as a gradual withdrawal of investor demand in some areas. 'Rising interest rates and high rates of home-price appreciation have raised the bar for homeownership to beyond what some families can reach,' he noted. 'Meanwhile, a retreat of short-term investors from certain markets is helping restore equilibrium between supply and demand.'"
"Builder confidence declined in all regions but the Midwest in March, where it rebounded seven points to 39 from an exceptionally low point of 32 in February."
"Here's some builder related news. "In an electronic message to members last week, NAHB economists pointed out that the inventory of units completed or under construction also is at a record level. Furthermore, they noted, sales that are subsequently cancelled never get back into the government's inventory estimates, 'and it's clear that cancellations have been on the rise, too,'"
"In February, NAHB surveyed nearly 500 single-family builders about unsold inventories. Excluding units not-yet-started but including units handed back buy buyers who have changed their minds, more than a third of the respondents said their inventories were higher than six months earlier, while less than one-fifth said their inventories had come down over that period."
"One of five builders reported that their cancellation rates were higher in January than six months earlier, while only 8 percent said their cancellation rate was down over that period. In addition, a supplementary NAHB canvass of about 30 large single-family home builders showed that, in January, cancellation rates (cancellations as a percent of sales backlog) were up by about one-third, on average, from historically low levels of a year earlier."
"'That trend, if it continues, accentuates the need for builders to control speculative building during the period ahead and to employ incentives to support sales and limit cancellations,' the association's economic department warned."
"Avatar Holdings Inc. today reported net income for 2005. The number of units sold declined by 19.9% due to several factors, including establishment of sales policies intended to reduce the backlog, institution of programs to discourage purchase by speculators, and a generally weaker residential real estate market. Avatar Holdings Inc. is primarily engaged in real estate operations in Florida and Arizona."
"Tarragon Corporation's homebuilding pipeline at year-end 2005, which includes sites owned or controlled by the Company not yet in active developments, grew to more than 8,800 homes in 30 communities, more than double year-end 2004 levels."
"CEO William S. Friedman commented, 'Some of our markets are returning to historically normal levels of housing sales activity. We have, for example, noted a marked slowdown in certain investor-driven West Coast Florida markets. Our guidance for 2006 assumes continued sluggishness in these West Coast Florida communities and moderate sales levels, in line with historical norms for the remainder of the market.'"