An Arizona blogger has discovered the rumors are true. "Recently, it was reported in the Phoenix market that the number of homes available had jumped from apx3400 homes January 05 to over 30,000 this January. As we watch some of the markets around the country, looking for signs of 'the bubble,' this number was astounding."

"As a member of the 'Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service' (ARMLS) I thought I would check for the accuracy of this claim. By the way ARMLS is known to the local realtors as 'armless.' In running some stats this morning, there are 33,270 active listings in the MLS. This covers greater Phoenix as well as a bit of outlying area. Another 1,225 are active/contingent. Under contract, but still being marketed for a buyer."

"There has been a lot of talk of speculation in the Phoenix market, which made me wonder, how many of these homes are vacant. Of the 33,270 active listings, 14,601 are vacant. 14,601, almost half. Wow."

"Why?? A lot of the 'flippers' that bought new homes did not want to put tenants in, so the homes could be marketed as new,never lived in. Move up buyers bought first for convenience/speculation, putting the old home on the market later. People buying 2nd/speculative homes. The high number of vacant homes appears to be the result of this speculative fever that has hit Phoenix, just like many markets."

"This has led to the unsustainable increase in homevalues, as the investors no longer enter the market. And a 10 fold increase in inventory as the speculators decide its time to get out while the gettins' still good. I have no year over year comparison for the vacant homes, or info on what is 'normal,' just a gut feeling that this doesn't bode well for the market."

An update: "Of the 33,000ish active the average price is $484,594. The total number of pending sales is 8,125. The average price of the total pendings is $378,573. Of the 16,000ish vacant homes, average asking price is $456,772. There are 3762 pending sale vacant homes(included in the 8,125), at an average price of $368,218. Looks like what is moving are the low end product."