Real Estate Consultants Rank The Housing Bubbles
Bankrate talked with some real estate analysts about which markets are, or are not overpriced. Highlights, "The D.C. market ranks 10th on John Burns list of markets facing a potential housing bubble, and home sellers in the metro market report that it's taking longer to sell than it did a year ago. Plus, builders are offering significant incentives to try to move inventory quickly."
"Ft. Myers/Cape Coral, Fla. Is it overvalued? Yes. The market is still affordable and more reasonably priced than Sarasota (43 percent overvalued) to the north or Naples (a whopping 72 percent overvalued) to the south, but the amount of building in the market is staggering."
"What goes up must come down. Fortune lists Las Vegas dead last in its list of 100 metro markets for housing appreciation in the next two years, predicting a two-year combined decrease in housing values of nearly 13 percent. 'Las Vegas is a very interesting market,' Ingo Winzer says. 'A lot of people moved in, but construction has kept up with the pace. For a long time until recently, I didn't consider it an overpriced market. I don't think the price increases will last. There's really not an inability to produce new homes out there if there is a demand for it.'"
"We're not quite sure what Sacramento ever did to anyone, but it showed up on just about everyone's list of has-been markets. Winzer's Local Home Value Ratings rates the market as 59 percent overvalued and Burns Housing Cycle Barometer also lists it as overpriced. 'Sacramento, we think, has topped out,' says Richard Gollis. 'There is just so much (housing construction) in the pipeline. It's a steady-as-she goes market and has always had consistent growth, but we think the land market has gotten ahead of itself.'"
"The bigger they are, the harder they fall, and Phoenix is the largest housing market in the country in terms of new construction. It's been running at 65,000 new units per year, with housing appreciation increasing at rates of nearly 30 percent per year. 'You can't sustain 30 percent increases a year for very long,' Winzer says. 'Of all the 100 markets we review, we think if you're an investor in Phoenix, you should sell, because vacancy rates are already pretty high.'"
"Gollis says his firm has been studying the market carefully and doesn't like what it sees. 'It's had an incredibly unusual amount of growth,' he says. 'The land market has accelerated dramatically and the lot price as percentage of the home price has gone up significantly. We have some concerns about going long in Phoenix.'"
"This one is in Winzer's backyard, his firm is based in Wellesley, Mass., so he sees what is happening there every day. 'Until about a year ago, homes would go on sale and be gone in a week,' he says. 'Now they're sitting on the market for a year.' He doesn't see the prices dropping rapidly here, or in any market, for that matter, because while real estate prices escalate rapidly, they drop slowly."
"'In markets that are well-overpriced, prices don't really fall because people just won't sell,' he says. 'The adjustment mechanism is skewed by people's emotions getting involved. People will grit their teeth and hang on as long as they can to get the price they want.' They might not be able to hang on for long. Burns ranks Boston fourth on his list of markets likely looking at a bubble; Winzer's analysis indicates the market is 33 percent overvalued."
"The City of Angels has been described as the poster child for how a lack of new housing near employment centers can hurt an economy. It's ranked as one of the least affordable places in the country to live, with housing prices consuming 91 percent of income, according to statistics from John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Plus, job growth is virtually flat. Together, it's cause for real estate market consultant Gollis to predict that the prices for California coastal markets are topping out in single-family homes. Fortune predicts a drop-off of nearly 8 percent in housing prices in the next two years."
"At 72 percent, Naples is No. 2 on Local Market Monitor's list of overvalued markets in the country (Santa Barbara-Santa Maria, Calif., is No. 1 at 86 percent overvalued). In actual pricing, it outpaces other Florida markets by a good $100,000 margin. Plus, there is an abundance of more affordably priced options for buyers within a short driving distance. It is no understatement that entire cities are being built nearby. 'The markets that are the most overvalued are the ones at greatest risk of a substantial correction,' Winzer says. 'Naples is at the top of that.'"
"Nassau/Suffolk, N.Y., otherwise known as Long Island, this market is No. 2 in the country on real estate consultant John Burns' list of locations facing a potential housing bubble. (Modesto, Calif., has the top spot.) Similarly, Fortune predicts a loss of about 6 percent in housing values over the next two years."