'Sellers Are Chasing Last Years Market'
Two reports on housing markets in the eastern US. "Home buyers and sellers have been staring at one another since the fall, waiting to see who will blink first. That stalemate has led residential inventory to climb 67 percent on Long Island and a stunning 82 percent in Queens from February 2005 to February 2006, according to data released yesterday by the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island."
"Prices, however, are still rising. Suffolk County's median price stood at $395,000 last month, a 6.8 percent gain over last February. In Nassau County, the median price reached $500,000, its previous high and a 13.7 percent increase from February 2005. Queens saw the biggest gain, a 20.5 percent increase to $470,000."
The NYSAR reported Suffolk's median at $400,200 for January 2006, Nassau at $490,000 and Queens at $565,000. The Long Island data is apparently unavailable.
"The potential for prices to stabilize or slow down is not entirely a bad thing, experts said. 'If sales prices come down a little bit, it will open the doors for more buyers to come into the housing market,' said Bob Moulton, a mortgage broker in Manhasset. So far, times are tougher for Moulton, who said volume is down 35 percent compared with last year. 'In the last 15 years, I think this has been the weakest start to spring that I've seen.'"
And from Massachusetts. "West Roxbury and recently Roslindale have shared in the statewide appreciation; however, experts are forecasting a 5 percent drop in housing prices in both the first and second quarters this year. However, while acknowledging the temperature of the real estate market has cooled from all-time highs in the past years, several local Realtors don’t share CHAPA’s analysis, saying they feel that the dip in the market has already occurred."
"'I don’t see that 5 percent drop over the spring and then again in the summer,' said (realtor) Justin Christensen in West Roxbury. 'I think it’s already happened over the past six months to a year, and I think we’re at where it’s going to be for the foreseeable future. I don’t see them dropping any further than where they’re at right now.'"
"Deirdre White in West Roxbury also feels that the housing market has already undergone a substantial correction, and said she is eagerly waiting to see how the spring market will play out. 'It’s really too difficult to predict. I think we already have seen a 5-plus percent drop since last fall, and I think the next couple of months are going to be real bellwether months,' White said. 'The spring market is upon us, and I think it’s going to speak volumes about who the rest of the year will go.'"
"Factoring into which way housing prices could swing is how the market deals with the annual flood of houses up for sale in the spring at a time when it has yet to shed its 'winter weight.' 'There is a little bit of a glut,' said Jesse Goldman in West Roxbury. 'We’re just entering the spring market, so there’s more houses coming on the market that’s already loaded with a lot of properties that have been sitting around for a while.'"
"For housing prices to stay at their current levels, demand is going to have match that large supply, something many experts aren’t so sure will be happening hence the predictions for a downward turn in the market. It has all the makings of a buyers’ market, but, says Goldman, all the news about dropping prices is also serving to keep buyers away."
"'It is more of a buyers’ market,' she said. 'But the buyers are also hearing all this negative information and that’s working to drive prices down, so it also keep buyers away. Nobody wants to take that initial hit.'"
"Added into the equation, Realtors said many sellers won’t accept that there already has been a drop in the market. 'That’s a little bit of an issue,' Christensen said. 'I think the problem is that a lot of sellers are chasing last year’s market. They’re trying to get last year’s prices in today’s market, and I can’t blame them, but that’s not going to happen.'"
"'They just don’t want to believe it,' Goldman said. 'You’re talking about people whose real estate is their investment, and they don’t want to give up on it.'"