'Something Does Not Feel Right' About Global Bubble
A check in on the global housing bubble. "A decline in real estate prices was recorded in Croatia last year in almost all districts as the decline reached as much as 50% in the city of Split. Speaking about real estate overpricing, Dubravko Ranilovic, president of the Real Estate Association said that sellers expect up to 25% higher prices than actually achieved."
"The Central Bank reported last month that Irish residential mortgage lending continued to expand at a rapid pace in January. With the exception of AIB Bank, all Irish lenders are providing 100% mortgages and many also provide interest-only loans. In recent years, more than 75 per cent of Bank of Ireland investment customers have availed of the bank's ten-year interest-only mortgage."
"A report produced by Rossa White says that the frenzy in the Irish property market has intensified. But rents have only recently recovered after a three year period in which they were in decline. As a result, yields have been driven down to unprecedented depths. Something does not feel right."
"White says that a line frequently trotted out by estate agents is that 'buy-to-let investors are not worried about rental yield; they are in it for the long haul of capital appreciation.' That is fundamentally unsound investment advice."
"The Davy report says that the evidence refutes the theory that supply shortages are leading to rocketing prices in 'desirable areas.' If that was the case, residential rents would be rising rapidly, but they are not. Since April 2001, house prices are up 52% on average nationwide but rents are down 2%!"
"The report also says that the proposition that scarcity of land close to the city-centre makes residential property a low-risk investment is not supported by evidence from other countries. The same argument was made in Japan in the late 1980s. The fundamentals suggest that it will be an adjustment in prices, rather than rents, that will eventually bring valuations down to more realistic levels."
"The Wrigleworth Consultancy hosted a debate yesterday on the future of house prices in the UK. Several leading economists were present, and, surely a first in a room full of economists, they more or less agreed that 'there will be no real growth in house prices for the foreseeable future.'"
"Quebec's housing affordability eroded in the fourth quarter of 2005 in the wake of rising mortgage rates, weaker income growth, and higher utility costs, according to the Housing Affordability Index report released today by RBC Economics. 'Quebec's housing market had already begun to cool last quarter,' said Derek Holt, assistant chief economist, RBC."
"Australia has become a nation of spendthrifts, as people now choose to save for a rainy day instead of going on spending sprees. Some of the spending softness was attributed to the continued threat of an interest-rate rise, falling housing prices and larger mortgages."
"'The slowdown that the RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) wanted is now here, and in spade,' economist Brendan O'Donovan said. O'Donovan said consumers were becoming more circumspect as the housing market goes sideways and employment growth slowed."
"Iceland's central bank will probably raise its main interest rate by half a percentage point tomorrow after the krona tumbled and a housing boom drove up inflation, a survey of economists shows. Soaring house prices have fueled consumer-price growth, which has surpassed the central bank's target for two years. The central bank is 'going to have to deliver the goods,' said Lars Christensen, an economist at Danske Bank in Copenhagen. 'If we don't get 50 basis points, it will spark renewed pressure on the krona.'"