What Will Higher Interest Rates Mean For The Bubble?
Some readers want to know what you think about interest rates. "I think a good topic would be on intrest rates. Long term rates are finally starting to rise. Many are proably going to blame this for the RE slow down. Predictions of where long term rates are headed (including time frame). Fed predictions and short term rates would also be intresting to go over."
"And to tie it all together, the yield curve and if it will stay inverted, correct it self, or stay the same."
Another said, "I agree about interest rates. How do the ARMs and 30-year rates affect the percentage of price that homes need to drop now, to make them as affordable as last year at this time, for example. I think late last summer the ARM speculators were priced out, and this year the long-term folks who want to simply buy a primary residence are going to find it much more expensive. Not to mention the ARM folks who were told they could 'just refi.' Argh."
From a new reader, "The big unknown, that gets very little play, is how what happens in the international capital markets will affect interest rates in the U.S. The efforts of other nations to move away from trading in dollars could have incredible ramifications for interest rates in the U.S. And we all know what increases in interest rates will mean for a housing market that is already tipping."
From a veteran of this blog. "The 10 year bond, now at 4.77, where does everyone think it’s going (how high)."
From the Wall Street Journal. "As interest rates rise and the housing market cools, there are hints that Americans are weaning themselves off the home-equity credit lines. The growth in home-equity credit lines has screeched to a halt. Many of the credit lines are tied to the prime interest rate, which has climbed to 7.5% from 4% three years ago."
"(Mortgage broker) Steve Habetz says his firm has seen its volume of home-equity lines cut in half since 2004 as a result of higher rates. 'When rates are dropping, I say 'Honey, great news, we're going to refinance our house and you're going to get that new kitchen,' Mr. Habetz said. 'Now all of a sudden...If I refinance, it's more expensive and I'm increasing my whole payment.'"
"Some homeowners still find the ease of home-equity lines irresistible, though. Neil Garfinkel, a real-estate attorney in New York, recently took out a home-equity line of credit which offers no-fee deals and other perks to entice consumers. 'I'm bucking the trend,' he said. 'I do not recommend people go out and do that...But I can't lie to you and tell you I didn't just go out and do it.'"
"Other consumers are finding alternative ways to finance spending. Ed Crowell, a lobbyist for the trucking industry in Georgia, and his wife took out a $100,000 home-equity line when they purchased a $300,000 house in suburban Atlanta in 1999, and tapped it to buy a car in 2001. Now, they're about to close on a weekend home in Pine Mountain, Ga."
"But this time, Mr. Crowell says, they will decline the bank's offer to set up a home-equity line. Rates have made them too expensive. 'The bank will offer it again, but we won't take it,' he said. Instead, Mr. Crowell says, he and his wife will take advantage of no-interest financing at the local Rooms to Go store to furnish the new house with furniture."