'Bubble Moves From Myth Status To Economic Reality'
Some reports on the lending side of the housing bubble. "The Seattle FHLBank said that "recent negative public policy views on the systemic risks presented by GSEs and accounting and other announcements by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHLBanks have, at times, created pressure on debt pricing, as investors apparently perceive such obligations as bearing greater risk than some other debt products."
"'Any additional similar announcements may contribute to further pressure on debt pricing,' the Seattle FHLBank continued. 'As a result of the perception of higher risk relating to GSE debt products, as well as GSE growth, the FHLBank System may have to pay higher interest rates on its consolidated obligations to make them attractive to investors,' it said."
From Reuters, "China should trim its holdings of U.S. debt, a senior Chinese official said, rattling markets on Tuesday. Hong Kong's Beijing-funded Wen Wei Po newspaper carried Cheng Siwei's comments, made in Hong Kong on Monday. 'China can stop buying dollar-denominated bonds, increase buying of U.S. products and gradually reduce its holdings of U.S. bonds,' the newspaper quoted him as saying."
And from a survey of lenders in the US. "Two-thirds of lenders nationwide believe a real estate bubble currently exists in the United States - and half of them believe it has already begun to burst or will burst in the next six months, according to the results of this quarter's Phoenix Management 'Lending Climate in America' Survey."
"A significant 93 percent of lenders surveyed expect an anticipated housing correction to result in real estate prices declining 10 to 20 percent across the country. 'In the minds of lenders, the housing bubble has moved from 'Loch Ness monster' myth status to an economic reality that could have a significant, negative impact on the lives of many Americans,' said Michael E. Jacoby."
"'A year ago, 46 percent of lenders believed we were in a housing bubble. Today, that number has climbed to 66 percent, and many of them believe a correction is imminent and could lead to a drop in housing prices of up to 20 percent."
"When asked when they believed the housing bubble would burst, thirty percent of lenders said it has already begun to happen. Twenty percent predicted it would occur in the next one to six months, and 27 percent thought it would happen seven to 12 months from now. Nine percent said it would occur in 2007."
"Among the 92 lenders who participated in this quarter's survey, only nine percent said they did not believe a housing bubble existed. When asked which area of the country was likely to be most affected by a housing correction, 30 percent of respondents named the Northeast, followed closely by 27 percent who predicted the West Coast. Fourteen percent named the Southeast, and five percent, each, named: the Mid-Atlantic, the Mid-West, or said all regions will be affected equally."
"Half of all lenders believe a housing correction will result in real estate prices dropping up to ten percent. Forty-three percent of lenders said the decline would be as high as 20 percent."