Chicago Area Builders 'Can't Miss Starts'
The Chicago Tribune reports not all builders are pulling back. "The much-predicted cooling of the five-year housing boom appears to be under way, but Chicago-area builders aren't feeling much of a chill. Ground was broken for 40 percent more new homes in the first quarter of this year than in the same period of 2005."
"Analysts credited several new mega-developments that are getting started, as well as intense competition and the influence of major national builders in the area."
"'As you see interest rates rise, they have taken a punch out of housing,' said Timothy Rogers, a Boston-based economist. 'New homes sales are down 21 percent from their peak in July 2005," he said, and the latest report 'speaks more to the pace of new home sales.'"
"Rogers noted starts are down year-over-year or flat in all regions of the country except the South, which is rebuilding after the devastation of Hurricane Katrina. 'I don't think I am generalizing too much that starts follow sales and sales follow demand, which is slowing,' said Rogers. 'The real test will be in the three months of spring when we will see how dramatic the downturn is. Our expectations are for a weaker sales pace going forward,' he said."
"Consultant Chris Huecksteadt said in a 14-county area from Rockford to Kenosha, Wis., and to northwestern Indiana. Regionwide, ground was broken for 8,000 new houses, duplexes and townhouses from January through March, compared with 5,500 a year ago."
"Kendall and Kane counties, home to several of those mega-developments, had the biggest gains in first-quarter starts, Huecksteadt noted. 'Lots of stuff that has been in the pipeline and which we have been talking about for years is on the market and selling,' he said."
"Another factor: fierce competition and the growing local presence of national builders loath to miss monthly goals reported to Wall Street."
"Leigh Nevers, VP of marketing for the Chicago division of Lennar, which includes Concord Homes, noted it is company policy to meet monthly start goals whether homes are sold or not. 'There is never a reason we wouldn't start the number of new homes that were projected for each month,' said Nevers. 'We will incentivize the homes if we have to sell them. We can't miss starts.'"
"Christopher Shaxted of Lakewood Homes in Hoffman Estates said builders 'need to be smarter. The consumer has a little more time to look around.' Shaxted said he doesn't foresee a glut of new homes and 'we certainly won't see price decreases.'"