Housings Downside Scenario 'Hard To Swallow'
Inman News continues their series on faltering home markets. "Lawrence Yun, an economist for the National Association of Realtors stops short of saying that homeowners in the Sunshine State and other parts of the Southeast may have become spoiled by their years of even heftier price gains."
"But, he admits, the mere suggestion that the pace of price inflation may slow 'might be a little hard to swallow' by homeowners in the region who have grown accustomed to even sharper annual increases."
"Statewide sales in February tumbled 24 percent from a year earlier, the Florida Association of Realtors says, with declines of more than 40 percent in such market stalwarts as Naples and the Sarasota-Bradenton area. There are growing signs that many of the same speculators who have helped to fuel Florida's long price-run-up are now getting jittery about the prospects for future gains."
"Cendant Corp. recently reported that its company-owned offices across Florida saw a remarkable 30 percent increase in cancelled sales: It placed most of the blame on speculators who backed out of deals, apparently because they think that prices may be topping out."
"If speculators continue bailing, Florida's condo market could be the first to feel the pain. The number of condos for sale in the Miami area is already double what it was a year ago, according to the state's realty group. The foreclosure rate is also twice the national level."
"Many developers just keep on building. Roughly 25,000 condominiums are under construction in the Miami-Dade area today, an amount that exceeds the total number of condo sales in the area that have been completed in the last nine years combined. 'It's a scary situation,' sums up Jack F. McCabe. 'We are going to see severe downward pricing pressures on condos in the next few years.'"
"Builder concessions are also popping up in other parts of the East. In Virginia, Brookfield Homes Corp. recently launched a 'FastMove' special on about 60 homes that are already finished or about to be completed: Discounts on some of its more expensive houses approach $100,000."
"And in Washington, D.C., developer MDC Holdings Inc. is offering thousands of dollars in free upgrades in an effort to offset a sharp 60 percent drop in local sales. 'We're certainly not in a 'panic mode,' but we're doing what we can to sell more houses,' an MDC sales rep says."
"Price cuts and other concessions are also spreading among new housing tracts in the key building markets of Atlanta and Dallas. Builders who've been active in the region for decades are taking it all in stride. 'We've been around for 52 years,' Lennar Corp. CFO Bruce Gross said. 'So, we know that housing has a downside scenario.'"