'Just Another Day In The San Diego Real Estate Circus'
The Voice of San Diego has this update on that housing bubble. "Home buyers in San Diego had 19,238 homes to choose from yesterday. And for a brief time over the weekend, San Diego had more homes listed for sale than ever before. San Diego has seen its inventory level increase 27 percent since the beginning of the year, increasing supply and leading to fears that prices could drop."
"Realtors say everything's going fine, if a bit slower than the last few years, while some local homeowners say it's time to get out before prices go down. It's just another day in the San Diego real estate circus."
"On Jan. 1, there were 13,916 homes up for grabs. That number rocketed up by about 100 homes a day throughout January and has been rising at a steady rate through early spring to reach its current level. 'I think the market is in serious trouble, in San Diego and in many other places as well,' said (economist) Edward E. Leamer. 'It's not a sure thing. Something could jump in and save it, but we don't see anything on the horizon, nationally or locally, that will turn these markets around.'"
"Darren Fulhorst bought his five bedroom, three-bathroom home in La Jolla in Jan. 2005 and he put it on the market one week ago. Fulhorst said he isn't desperate to sell, but he nevertheless put his home on the market for $100,000 to $200,000 less than comparable properties."
"'I'm not accepting anything lower,' Fulhorst said. 'I'm listing it for six weeks, at the peak sales time, at an excellent price, and if it doesn't sell, I'm holding onto it.'"
"Peter Chinloy of San Diego State University, said there are plenty of people in the same boat as Fulhorst. He said the reason the high inventory levels haven't translated into substantial price decreases is that sellers are not yet willing to let go of the equity they have built up in their property. 'What you have is a large number of people who are sort of sticking it out there and hoping that some accident will happen, that someone will offer them a high price for it, but they're not sufficiently distressed that they'll take the low offers that come along,' Chinloy said."
"Eventually, barring a large rebound in sales activity, prices are going to have to come down eventually, Leamer said. 'It's not until the sellers look around their neighborhoods and see all these other homes for sale and say 'I've got to get ahead of this,' that they start cutting prices,' he said."
"Typically, it takes a while for high inventory levels to translate into price decreases, Leamer said. He said sellers typically stay optimistic for about a year before they start to get cold feet."
"With nearly 20,000 homes on the market in the county, all the analysts know something has to give. Whether disappointed sellers pull their homes off the market until things calm down, or relent on prices and give up some of the gains of the past few years, remains to be seen."