The Arizona Republic looks at the states housing economy. "With millions of dollars on the line, several East Valley cities are appealing last year's mid-decade U.S. census after early estimates showed thousands fewer residents than expected in Maricopa County."

"Meanwhile, the Census Bureau has agreed to resurvey a sample of vacant housing units and is expected to be working in the county until the end of May."

"'The cities are very hopeful this will make a difference and increase the population number,' said Heidi Pahl, census coordinator for the Maricopa Association of Governments. '"We're all keeping our fingers crossed.'"

"Town officials in Gilbert were trying to evaluate how the state's fastest-growing community was undercounted in the survey. The estimate for Glendale came up more than 2,700 residents short of the city's own estimates. Paradise Valley, which filed a protest letter April 11, believes its current population to be 14,500, rather than the 13,397 indicted by the preliminary census figures."

"Town officials believe the undercount is due to the survey not properly addressing the occupancy rate for guesthouses and the timing of the survey, when many residents were away on vacation."

"'In terms of job quality as defined by wages, Arizona is in the middle of the states, though below the national average,' said Tom Rex, a researcher at Arizona State University. 'If job quality is defined more broadly as total compensation including fringe benefits, the state may not compare as well, but good data on this are lacking. However, as an example, the state has a higher proportion working temporary and contract jobs, which typically do not receive much in the way of benefits.'"

"During 11 of the past 12 years, 100,000 or more people have moved to metropolitan Phoenix, creating booming demand for new construction and services, according to Moody's."

"Gina Gordon of Chandler was laid off from a job at a mortgage and finance company that paid $34,000 a year. She recently visited with job fair recruiters at the Maricopa Workforce Connections center in Gilbert and was disheartened to discover the low starting pay. 'People are paying between $8 and $9 per hour, and I'm standing here thinking that won't pay the rent,' she said."

"On one hand, state workforce officials quickly laud Arizona's 5.2 percent job growth rate between January 2005 and January 2006, the second fastest in the nation behind Nevada. Yet tens of thousands of new jobs don't automatically mean increased pay and benefits."

"Take Wal-Mart Stores Inc., for example. With nearly 30,000 employees in Arizona, it ranks as the largest employer in numbers. Its average pay for full-time store associates in Arizona is $10.09."

Checking the Census numbers, one finds the rental vacancy rate in Arizona at 11.6% in 2005, above the national average.

"And checking this 4th quarter 2005 table, the Census Bureau found 4% of vacant homes in the west that are for rent have never been occupied. And of the vacant homes for sale in the west, 13% have never been occupied."

And a reader sent this Republic article in recently. "The Department of Economic Security updated its population projections just last month. The fresh DES figures are raising eyebrows. They show net migration, the population change due to people moving in and out of Arizona falling every year from now until 2055."

"Are people from other states really going to stop flocking here? Will the outflow, the number of people bailing out, really overshadow the inflow? DES says yes."