A pair of reports provide a rare look at the New Jersey situation. "When interest rates fell in April, sales surged ahead at a record pace through August, when the industry hit a wall, said Jeffrey G. Otteau, president of an appraising and consultant company from East Brunswick. Otteau attributed the stagnation to a decline in affordability and a loss of purchasing power."

"2005 also ended with inventory up 41 percent in the final four months to go along with a 15 percent differential in sales compared to the first eight months. 'That has set the tone for 2006,' he said. Sales are down 12 percent from the pace set last year. And inventory is up 65 percent. Buyers are waiting to see if there really is a bubble, Otteau said."

"'71 percent of the population expect a price collapse in the next 12 months. That won't happen. But the fear of that drummed into the public has buyers worried. They have no sense of urgency,' he said."

"The once-sizzling New Jersey real estate market is showing signs of going flat, according to an expert who presented his findings Thursday at the Atlantic Builders Convention. It appears to be shifting from a buyers' market to a sellers' market, with home listings outnumbering home sales by 2-to-1 in the first quarter of this year, said Jeffrey Otteau."

"'The clear message to sellers is that the party is over,' Otteau said after the talk to a standing-room only crowd of builders. 'The days of increasing asking and selling prices have passed.'"

"'We aren't looking at a market that is going to crash,' he told the builders. 'We are absolutely looking at a market that is going to adjust.' He said a glut of homes for sale might limit the appreciation of property."

"He said the slowdown is most dramatic in the luxury home market and in Cape May County, the state's most concentrated second-home market. But there are signs buyers are taking a 'wait-and-see' attitude throughout the state, he said."

"The average number of Bergen County home sales dropped by 11 percent compared with the first quarter of last year, and the average number of listings increased 84 percent. In Passaic County, the number of sales dropped 15 percent, and listings were up 65 percent."

"Statewide, the average number of sales dropped by 12 percent and the average number of listings jumped by 65 percent in the first quarter."

"Otteau said that builders should be more disciplined in the prices they pay for land. He attributed the slowdown to several factors; Investors, who made up more than a quarter of buyers in 2005, have largely dropped out of the market..People are nervous because they've heard a lot of talk of a housing bubble and the possibility of a collapse."