The Arizona Republic has this housing bubble update. "Pinal County's molten housing market continued its recent cooling trend in first-quarter 2006, as existing-home sales volume fell and prices stumbled. Sales volume for used houses fell 22.6 percent from first-quarter 2005, to 1,110 transactions, and marked the third consecutive quarterly decline, according to a report by Arizona State University."

"The median price dipped by about $10,000 (3.9 percent) from $220,000 in fourth-quarter 2005."

"Bob Rucker, CEO of Arizona Regional MLS, said the number of existing houses for sale in Pinal County had risen to 4,342. The report said new-home sales and prices were up over first-quarter 2005, although 1,000 fewer houses were sold than in fourth-quarter 2005, the first significant slip since the county's housing market took off a few years ago."

"'The Pinal County resale market is slowing as is the overall housing market,' said Jay Butler, director of the ASU center. 'The problem is that this market doesn't have a history so we don't know what's normal. This housing market only came into existence five years ago.'"

"The housing boom in the Southeast Valley spilled over into Pinal County. And, sales in the once-rural county will have a 'significant impact on how (the Valley's housing) market plays out over time,' Butler said."

"Pinal County and its municipalities issued a record of nearly 20,000 home building permits last year. Sales dipped by 22.8 percent from 4,715 homes sold in fourth-quarter 2005."

"Housing analyst RL Brown said the Pinal County market is in the midst of finding normalcy after a bustling 2005. Houses are staying on the market 60 to 90 days or more, which creates a buyer's market. 'We haven't seen 'normal' around here in a long time,' Brown said."

"Some buyers were eschewing existing homes because they can often get a new house for close to the same price and a builder's warranty. They also can frequently get purchase incentives from builders, such as free swimming pools, that are worth thousands of dollars, Brown said."

"Real estate agent Mary Grube recently sold a new home in the San Tan Heights subdivision after builder Richmond American Homes offered incentives of about $50,000. Incentives can be used for upgrades or to reduce the price of a house."

"The incentives are playing major role in buying decisions as are dwindling price gaps between large new and existing homes. 'It makes it a lucrative investment to buy new, and most people want to buy a new home,' Grube said."

"Deborah Farhat, a broker in the city of Maricopa, said builders in the area are offering commissions to real estate brokers that are reaching 6 percent and 7 percent, and slashing speculative home prices. (Realtor) Joanne George said builders are even offering gas cards to get agents to bring clients to the county."

"'They're pretty much hitting everyone on the buyer's side,' Farhat said. George said Pinal County is still affordable but was experiencing the 'lull after the storm.' Market pressures were driving sellers to list homes at fairer prices."

"Butler said when mid year numbers come out in a few months that will give a better perspective on the market's direction. 'It will probably either remain stable, or decline a little bit more,' Butler said. 'But we really don't know. Lots of different things are happening.'"