Glut Created By Speculation And Cancellations: CEO
Toll Brothers has the latest numbers out. "Toll Brothers Inc. lowered its earnings forecast for the fiscal year, a further sign of the slowing U.S. housing market. While the economy remains healthy, the new-home market is beset by a glut of units created by investor and builder speculation and buyer cancellations, CEO Robert Toll said."
"'Demand, while obviously diminished, has not disappeared,' he said. 'We believe many customers currently feel a lack of urgency to purchase due to their uncertainty over the direction of home prices. This has contributed to keeping many potential buyers on the sidelines.'"
"Toll said it expected full-year earnings of $4.69 to $5.16 a share, down from a prior forecast of $4.77 to $5.26, excluding items. On May 5, Toll lowered its fiscal-year sales forecast to a range of between 9,000 and 9,700 homes from a previous range of 9,200 to 9,900."
"The sales warning, the company's third since November, came after Toll saw the number of new-home orders in the quarter drop 32 percent, while the value of the contracts fell 29 percent. Orders fell 45 percent in Toll's biggest market, the states of Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Virginia."
"Second-quarter revenue rose 17 percent to $1.44 billion. Analysts, on average, expected $1.45 billion. Revenue from land sales totaled $2.1 million in the quarter, down from $9.8 million the year earlier."
"Rising rates and record prices have cut demand at the height of the spring selling season, traditionally the busiest time for U.S. homebuilders. Orders for Toll houses, which sell for double the U.S. average, plunged 33 percent from February through April."
"'If builders aren't able to achieve order volume during the spring, there's little chance to make it up in the back half of the year,' said Rick Murray, an analyst at Raymond James & Associates."
"Toll's orders dropped to 2,076 from 3,120 a year earlier, the second decline following 10 quarters of gains. The company reiterated its view that speculators are throwing in the towel and the housing market will rebound once it works its way through the excess inventory."
And the word on the Fannie Mae report. "Federal regulators said Tuesday that their report on accounting problems at mortgage giant Fannie Mae, originally scheduled for release at 10 AM ET, will be delayed until 1:30 PM ET."