Homebuilders Should Buy Themselves Out: Analyst
The Street.com looks at the future of the public homebuilders. "Homebuilder stocks remain dismal performers of late. The question remains: How do you extract that value? The answer for builders, according to some industry watchers, is through large land sales, mega-mergers or share buybacks, which would make it clear to investors that it is cheaper to buy land on Wall Street than on Main Street."
"Analyst Gregg Schoenleber has a unique take on the matter. 'If the market is not willing to pay for the value we see in homebuilders, we think the builders themselves should do so, through buybacks. In essence, the companies would begin to 'LBO' themselves,' Schoenleber wrote."
"'We estimate this would enhance annual EPS growth by 13 percentage points per annum from 2006-2010,' he wrote. 'At that point, when the industry has consolidated or the last share is for sale, the market may finally collectively proclaim, 'Now we believe you!'"
"The difficulty is that builders report only the costs of land on their balance sheets and typically don't break out exactly when that land was purchased. What compounds the problem is that public builders themselves have made up a large percentage of the buyers driving up the land prices in recent years, so it's hard to tell if the whole group is overpaying."'
"'The question to ask any CEO of a public homebuilder is why it would be more attractive to buy land right now than their own stock,' says (fund manager) Michael Elrad. Investors looking for undervalued land on Wall Street should pay attention to which builders bought land many years ago at a lower cost rather than solely in the overheated market of the past few years, Elrad says. The older a company's land holdings, the more investors can find comfort in paying premiums to book value."
"Investors' best bet may be to eye the builders with older land holdings and an aggressive buyback program. Because it's the public builders who've bought most of the land in recent years, the buyback plan would demonstrate to the market just how undervalued their own land is."
"For larger builders, however, harvesting such value isn't as easy, because none appear to be looking to sell off large tracts of valuable land."
Looking at Tolls balance sheet, one sees that close to two billion in inventory has been added since 2003 and well over one billion since last spring. And what good are share buybacks as the firm is issuing stock to insiders at under $5 per share and then they sell it?
Looking at their cash flow statement; where will they get the cash to do these buyback?