Housing Bubble 'A Thought Process Nationwide'
The Daily News has this update from coastal North Carolina. "'For Sale' signs are sprouting like dandelions at homes along N.C. 210. 'The size of the MLS book is twice the size it usually is, said (realtor) Richard Baker in Sneads Ferry. 'The sales equation has doubled since a year ago in January. The numbers are there. We’ve got a surge of inventory, no question in my mind.'"
"This year’s property revaluation in Onslow County estimated the value of beach properties in some Topsail Island areas at close to 400 percent more than a year ago. But are the higher prices starting to scare buyers off?"
"'There is a combination of things, first of all, if you read the national press, you constantly hear about real estate being overvalued, and they think the bubble is going to burst. It’s a thought process nationwide,' Baker said. The media have been predicting a downward trend in the 'housing boom' of recent years, Baker said, thereby scaring some possible buyers away until the market becomes more stable."
"'People are concerned about buying at the beach,' Baker said. 'But because of the excellent growth and appreciation over the last few years, we had a lot of profit-seekers. When the market slowed down, they didn’t stop building.'"
"'There are more than 400 (agents) on this sliver of beach marketing it,' he said. 'More agents are calling sellers up saying, ‘Hey, I can get you a million dollars.’ They call people up and paint the sky blue and the water deep and as a result we’ve got a lot of listings in the MLS.'"
"Chris Rackley, president of the Topsail Island Association of Realtors, said he thinks the reasons people are selling are age-old. 'This island is an investment and some people are ready to cash in, while some are upgrading or downgrading,' Rackley said. 'There are tons of reasons.'"
And nearby, an economist had this presentation. "More than 50 people turned out for an investor seminar recently hosted by a community of luxury condominiums and townhomes in Boca Raton."
"The featured speaker for the evening was David Lereah, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. Lereah was quick to make his message clear: 'You don't need a boom for real estate to roar. The real estate boom is over but the real estate expansion is still here.' Although homes are not selling as quickly right now, prices are still up. 'There are no real estate bubbles, only balloons that expand and contract," he said.'"
"He said the real estate boom was caused by factors such as lenders being able to reduce financing costs; baby boomers reaching their peak earning years and trading up or buying second, third and vacation homes."
"'Real estate is not an irrational investment, but speculators purchased irrationally during the boom, especially in areas like Miami. This drove prices up, and many speculators took out interest-only loans. This produced a vulnerable real estate market,' Lereah explained. 'In 2006, we are cleansing the market of speculation.'"
"He added that he is bullish on Florida, Arizona and Nevada because of even greater population increases. 'The law of supply and demand works.' All of Lereah's real estate investments are in condominiums and townhomes because he doesn't want to be involved in maintaining them. 'If you're Mr. Fix It, then it's okay to invest in a single-family home,' he said."
"Lereah also pointed out that he has invested in several condominium conversions. 'Condo conversions are good because the property is already there.'"