The Shrewsbury Chronicle looks at the affordable housing confusion in Massachusetts. "In many communities, there are double and triple the number of properties for sale now than a year ago, which is driving sellers crazy, but the demand for housing in Greater Boston still far outweighs its supply. The Commonwealth needs to build in excess of 30,000 new housing units to keep everything from child care providers to corporate headquarters from leaving the state."

"Harvard economist Edward Glaeser, Freddie Mac CEO Richard Syron and Barry Bluestone, professor of political economy at Northeastern, all pointed to expensive permitting processes for builders, stringent land-use regulations and a 'not-in-my-backyard' attitude for the state's failure to provide housing for the people it needs most."

"Employment in Greater Boston declined 4.9 percent between 2000 and 2004, Bluestone reported and the state lost 5.2 percent of its population."

"Housing cycles, where prices go up and then go down, occur everywhere, Glaeser said, but the volatility is far greater in metropolitan areas with restricted housing supply, such as California, where prices have dropped sharply."

"'At every low vacancy rates, below 1.5 to 2 percent, housing prices accelerate rapidly,' Bluestone said. 'With few homes on the market, sellers have an edge over buyers. At higher vacancy rates, prices begin to moderate and may even fall slightly as buyers begin to gain some bargaining power.'"

"'But,' he continued, 'as vacancy rates for single-family homes rise much above 4 percent, housing prices begin to plummet. The sellers' market turns into a buyers' market. In the worst case scenario, prices can fall by 20 percent or more and not recover to their peaks for 12 years or more.'"

"Doesn't the high increase in single-family home inventory fit into that category?"

"Yes, but that doesn't show the whole picture. 'If housing prices do not moderate as a result of greater housing supply, the resulting decrease in employment and increase in out-migration could lead to a housing price roller coaster with housing prices tumbling in the process,' he said."

"'Paradoxical as it may seem, this suggests that a modest increase in housing supply now, leading to a moderation in housing price appreciation could help inoculate homeowners against a much larger loss in their property values in the future,' Bluestone said."

"Moderating housing prices, however, might not sit well with the thousands of home sellers out there, hoping to get top dollar for their highly appreciated homes. But in this case, what's good for the goose is good for the gander, the economists said."

The Rocky Mountain News reports on a related paradox in Colorado. "Rising foreclosure and interest rates, as well as an improving economy, drove the vacancy rate for rental houses in the Denver area to 4.9 percent, the lowest rate since professor Gordon Von Stroh began tracking small rental units in 2003."

"The vacancy rate in the Denver area for traditional apartments stood at 7.7 percent in the first quarter."

"'Since we created this survey in the third quarter of 2003, this is the lowest vacancy rate the residential sector has seen,' Von Stroh said. 'I think it suggests that rental housing is improving as part of the overall momentum of the Denver economy.'"

"But despite job growth in the metro area , a trouble spot has been rising home foreclosures. But that has actually helped the rental market. 'I think foreclosures are a factor,' improving rental occupancies, Von Stroh said. 'People who had been in an ownership mode are now in a rental mode.'"

"Bob Alldredge, a member of the National Association of Property Managers, agreed with Von Stroh's assessment. 'Most everyone who is involved in a foreclosure moves into a rental somewhere,' Alldredge said. 'But it is an interesting situation. Adams County has the highest rental vacancy rates, and that is where most of the foreclosures are.'"