Global Property Boom 'Turning Into A Bust'
Thw Washington Post reports on the pending Fed decision. "The Federal Reserve is on track to lift its benchmark interest rate again today for a 17th consecutive quarter-percentage-point increase over 25 months, making this the longest sustained campaign on record of raising interest rates."
"So why isn't the economy choking by now? The short answer is that money is still pretty cheap, in historical terms."
From MarketWatch. "Evidence is mounting that the global property cycle is turning down, as rising interest rates and heightened inflationary pressures combine to put the brakes on demand for real estate, according to a Morgan Stanley report."
"'Due to deflation shocks, global inflation has been low, which allowed major central banks to keep interest rates very low, in turn fueling property,' economist Andy Xie said. 'As inflation picks up simultaneously around the world, interest rates are rising everywhere, and the property boom is turning into a bust.'"
"Unlike in previous property cycles, Xie said institutional property investors have been active in shifting capital between different cities, leading to the rare situation where prices gained in unison around the world."
"'Innovations in the global financial system have led to a rising correlation of property markets to each other and central bank-policies. It has essentially turned deflationary shocks of the past 10 years into a global property bubble,' Xie said."
"He cites some telling statistics to illustrate his point. The value of U.S. housing has risen to 173% of gross domestic in 2005 from 135% in 2000. And in Australia, housing values rose to 347% of GDP in 2005 from 271% in 2000."
From the Reuters summit. "U.S. real estate executives hope the Federal Reserve Bank signals interest rate hikes are complete after the latest expected increase this week. Inflation and potential Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, and how many of them, are the top concerns among the executives, who spoke at the Reuters Real Estate Summit."
"Beazer Homes CEO Ian McCarthy does not think the Fed has been too aggressive so far, but worries about more increases beyond this week. 'If there's one more increase..that would probably be good. Do we need any more than that? I'm not sure that we do,' he said. 'We don't want to tighten the economy down so far that it impacts the markets.'"
"However, Robert Toll, CEO of Toll Brothers said the repeated quarter-point interest rate increases have been somewhat maddening. 'This Chinese water treatment of a quarter of a point (hikes), it hasn't had its desired effect,' he said. 'Do I think the Fed has overdone it? No,' Toll added. 'I think the Fed has underdone it in the past.'"
An update. "The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5-1/4 percent."
"Recent indicators suggest that economic growth is moderating from its quite strong pace earlier this year, partly reflecting a gradual cooling of the housing market and the lagged effects of increases in interest rates and energy prices."
"Although the moderation in the growth of aggregate demand should help to limit inflation pressures over time, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain. The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information."
"In any event, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to support the attainment of its objectives."