'Is This Going To Be A Train Wreck?'
A pair of reports from California. "Loma Linda resident Bradford Botanes expected the market to be slower now than when he bought his three-bedroom, two and one-half bathroom house 18 months ago. 'It's slower than what I expected,' he said, noting that no one has toured the house, on the market since April, in about a month."
"The once-sizzling Southern California housing market is cooling. 'The froth is definitely out of the market,' said Jack Kyser, chief economist for the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. 'There are a lot of price-reduced stickers on those for-sale signs.'"
"Many potential sellers not wanting to miss the top of the market have listed their properties for sale. Real-estate listings for much of San Bernardino and Riverside counties and the San Gabriel Valley, excluding Pasadena, increased 46 percent to 56,371 for the first five months of 2006 compared to the same period last year."
"The last four months have been record-setting months for new listings since the listing service began tracking in 1999, said spokesman Gordon Maddock. 'May was the strongest month for listings when 12,000 residential properties were placed on the market,' Maddock said."
"'I'm torn between wondering if we are going to be alright or is this going to be a train wreck,' said (realtor) Ken Scott. Scott, like many in the industry, is concerned what will happen when some of the dicey creative mortgages convert to market rates next year: 'Will households find themselves in trouble?'"
"For the first five months of this year, the number of notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure process, increased 34.8 percent to 2,853 in San Bernardino County, said John Karevoll, an analyst for DataQuick."
"'The key word is that the ARMS are ‘starting' to kick in,' economist John Husing said. 'Most of them have a two-year kick, so the ones that are hitting this year are the ones that were taken out in 2004. The ones who are potentially in danger are the ones who took loans out in 2005,' Husing said. 'They could have problems in 2007.'"
The Daily Bulletin. "There is no question home prices have skyrocketed during the past few years. Cities such as Fontana, where the median price was $135,000 in the spring of 2002, had a median of $430,000 in April. 'The boom is over,' Kyser said. 'There really is not a lot to enjoy about the housing market right now.'"
"Everyone has heard the stories, anecdotal and otherwise. The guy down the street who listed his house six months ago, has cut the price twice and still can't get anyone to buy it. The neighbor who has open houses every weekend and still hasn't been able to sell. The streets with sign after sign, FOR SALE."
"'We have reached a transition point in the market,' said Bill Velto, realtor in Upland. 'We are at a point where buyers are more cautious and sellers are more aware of buyers' concerns.'"
"Or to put it a little more bluntly...'To sell a house right now, you've got to want to sell,' Velto said. 'You've got to need to sell.'"
"Indeed, it appears that a good bit of the excessive inventory on the market isn't really on the market. Numerous sources have suggested that many of the homes that are for sale are listed at unrealistic prices."
"Locally, Velto speculates that roughly 60 percent of the homes currently listed for sale aren't priced realistically. 'Take any sample of 10 homes and the chances are six of them are priced higher than they should be,' he said."
"That price, he said, can be anywhere from about 7 percent up to 20 or even 30 percent above current market value. It's a price set by sellers afraid they've already missed the crest of the market and fear they're losing money every day they don't sell."
"But taking a long-range view, Redlands resident Karen Oliver still thinks buying a house will pay off as an investment. She and her husband are planning to buy a second home in Redlands as part of their retirement portfolio. By renting it out, 'long term it will be good deal,' she said."