'It's Safe To Say The Housing Boom Is Over'
Another homebuilder had disappointing numbers out last night. "Irvine-based Standard Pacific reported after the stock market closed that it expected to cut its earnings and delivery guidance for the full year. Standard Pacific said net orders were off in California, Florida and Arizona, contributing to a 41% drop in April and May compared with a year earlier."
"Pulte Homes Inc. and Standard Pacific Corp. on Friday became the latest major home builders to warn of lower full-year earnings as the housing market continues to cool across the country. Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. and Toll Bros. Inc. lowered their forecasts within the last month."
"All four companies cited large drops in new orders and jumps in cancellation rates in the second quarter on top of rising interest rates and larger inventories of unsold properties. Home prices could slip as companies offer incentives and discounts, said anaylst Rick Murray. Investors, who bought many homes during the boom, could sell their assets as the market cools."
"'I think it's safe to say the housing boom is over,' he said."
"One of the Phoenix area's biggest home builders told Wall Street on Friday that earnings would not meet expectations because of a plunge in orders. Pulte Homes, the Michigan-based company that owns the Del Webb brand, said that orders for new homes fell nearly 30 percent across the country in April and May."
"The financial health of home builders is vital to the Valley's economy. Housing is the area's top industry and a major employer. It's clear that buyers are revolting against high prices and rising interest rates. 'We've been in a housing bubble and now we're seeing the downside of that,' said Dawn McLaren, a research economist at Arizona State University. 'A lot of our job growth has been in construction, and now we have to worry about that. When you look at job growth numbers, that is the measure of the economy.'"
"The slowdown comes at a time when Pulte is rolling out several big new projects in Arizona, including two new Sun City communities and an Anthem community. Housing analyst RL Brown, publisher of the Phoenix Housing Market Letter, said builders need to unload spec homes and keep production moving."
"'This is not unique to Pulte, and I would expect that any builder that is being straightforward today about this region to be in a similar situation,' he said."
"(Analyst) Stephen East said he expects Pulte orders to be down a "disturbing" 21 percent this year. '(Pulte's) over-reliance on Florida and the West region is now coming home to roost,' he wrote."
The Herald Tribune. "In one of the strongest signs yet that the real estate market has cooled, the city of North Port issued fewer building permits last month than anytime in the past four years. North Port, the fastest-growing city in the region, expected to permit more than 5,000 single-family homes this year. But in May it issued just 74 permits. That follows only 88 permits issued in April."
"It represents a virtual standstill in a market. Sales of existing homes in the Sarasota-Bradenton market fell 44 percent in April when compared with the same month a year ago, while Charlotte County-North Port's sales fell 33 percent. Statewide, sales decreased 31 percent from 2005."
"Still, the May numbers for North Port were among the most dramatic that have been reported. 'That's kind of shocking, but it was due to happen,' said Barbara Gross, a North Port City Commissioner. 'I think if you checked every place, all the permits are down.'"
"Charlotte County, too, is feeling a slowdown in sales. According to the Florida Association of Realtors, condominium sales plummeted 98 percent in April, with two sold, compared to 81 in 2005."
"Commissioner, Richard Lockhart, said the city's economic model has fundamentally changed. 'We can't depend on the housing market to sustain what we had going,' Lockhart said."