'No One Expects It To End' In San Antonio
A pair of reports on the housing bubble in full-swing. "Rural Hill Country communities have become a favorite of buyers from California. High taxes, inflated property values and a higher cost of living are prompting more Californians to leave the state and buy property in other parts of the country."
"Now there are signs that the appreciation in California home prices may be peaking, and that values could soon begin declining. If this trend pans out, then the rush to sell could accelerate."
From My San Antonio. "Morning comes to the foothills of the Texas Hill Country, and everything appears to be in the sight line of a surveying crew. Construction began on nearly 16,500 new homes last year. That's up 27 percent from 2004, part of a trend that has held steady for 15 years."
"Jack Inselmann's projections for 2006: 18,000 housing starts. It's not just new construction. All housing, experts say, is good housing in the Alamo City. Builders and real estate officials are cautious in their description of the growth. They shy away, for example, from calling it a 'housing boom.'"
"'I've never seen anything like this,' said Rick Barnett, who has been a builder since the 1970s. 'All sectors are seeing tremendous growth,' said (builder) Ralph Rodriguez. 'The steady growth across the entire spectrum of prices has resulted in growth in all parts of town. It's not just the North Side anymore. It's everywhere.'"
"The city's building renaissance has its roots in failures 20 years ago. In the late '70s, however, a housing boom pushed the city out to Loop 1604 and beyond. The trouble, builders say, was that it was built on a foundation of bad business plans, flimsy financing and specious demand."
"The bubble burst in the early '80s, taking subdivisions, builders, and hundreds of savings and loan associations with it. The bubble, said (builder) Dean Morris, occurred because of cooked numbers, demand exceeded supply and housing appreciation was higher than inflation."
"'There was some growth,' said Art Burdick, a custom builder who specializes in luxury homes, 'but it was all smoke and mirrors.'"
"For the builders who survived the financial purge, this was akin to Christmas arriving early. Cheap money. Pre-fab land. 'It was there for the taking,' said Rodriguez, 'so we took it.'"
"The highly coveted North Side is filling up, Barnett said, pushing buyers to the east and west. Already, developers are divvying up the land west of Loop 1604 on the West Side. Until that's ready, Kessler said, existing-home values will continue to appreciate, and that has lured out-of-state investors, who see the bargains on every block in the current housing market."
"Those investors, in turn, drive up costs by their purchases. No one expects it to end."