'The High-Stakes Game Of Musical Chairs'
Business Week looks at the homebuilder numbers. "It looked like there was finally a bit of good news in the housing sector, when the government announced a rebound in home construction for May. But dig into the data, and the picture for housing is only getting worse."
"Permits for construction; a better indication of where the market's headed; continued to decline. Homebuilders are getting increasingly pessimistic, according to a survey that is more up-to-date than the government data. And homebuilder stocks are continuing to slump."
From Danielle DiMartino. "After I had mulled over the troubling 5 percent rise in May housing starts, a brilliantly simple explanation hit my inbox. 'Builders with no starts are 'unemployed,' wrote James Bandy of Dallas, 'and they will never be voluntarily unemployed.'"
"Mr. Bandy said he recalls Texas in the mid-1980s well enough to recognize the sequel to the high-stakes game of musical chairs. Given that we all know how the game ends, it's hard to see why so many builders continue to be willing participants. Yet they play on."
"Inventories of new and existing homes are at the highest levels ever recorded. Wouldn't it be smarter to show a bit of restraint and shelter what profit margins do remain? It's not as if retaining sales volumes to keep up appearances is still a legitimate excuse. Wall Street long ago pummeled homebuilder stocks."
"Rather than pile on more incentives to stanch plummeting demand, those with an eye on survival could simply cancel, or at least postpone, groundbreakings."
"Besides, there's something to be said for the greater good here. 'A declining housing market could be more damaging than estimates, because the housing sector boom accounted for over 40 percent of the jobs created in the current expansion,' (economist) Asha Bangalore told her clients."
"And then there's the vulnerability of so many young homeowners who've been hoodwinked by the lending community. Why worry about a mortgage blowing up, after all, if you can immediately sell it in the wide-open collateralization market?"
"In 1992, 40 percent of those tapping adjustable-rate mortgages had high incomes. Only 25 percent were among the lowest earners. Today, those figures have flip-flopped."
"It's painfully apparent that, somewhere along the way, the industry abandoned concern for its customers' long-term well-being."
"Maybe builders just don't appreciate how critical a role they play. Oversupply is but one issue when viewed in isolation, as is the risk to the labor market, as is the threat to the banking system. Add them together, though, and we're talking about a seriously brutal session of musical chairs."