The Housing Bubble 'Ripple Effect'
The Arizona Republic looks at the housing bubble 'ripple effect.' "Metropolitan Phoenix's housing slowdown is bad news for more than home-building companies and the investors who hold their stock. The region's economy is unusually dependent on housing, so a lot of livelihoods rely on it."
"The housing market is slowing across the board as buyers rebel against rising prices and higher mortgage rates. Sales of existing homes were down 34 percent last month compared with May 2005. And home builders pulled 21 percent fewer building permits in April than the year before."
"Housing accounts for at least $1 in every $3 generated in the Valley's economy. When housing hits the skids, the effects ripple throughout the economy."
"Marshall Vest, an economist at the University of Arizona, said Arizona's real estate industry 'took a dive' in the late 1980s and early 1990s and the rest of the state's economy fell, too."
"He doesn't expect that to be the case now. 'This time around the economy is growing so much that less of a slowdown is expected,' he said. '(But) the construction industry, mortgage brokers, real estate brokers and other industries tied to housing will all feel it. There are going to be a lot of new real estate agents who go back to being schoolteachers.'"
The Dallas News interviews a bond expert that has a similar take. "Mark Kiesel may have gotten fat from the sale of his home in Newport Beach, Calif., but he's no longer in danger of getting slaughtered like the proverbial hog. Three weeks ago the portfolio manager at Pacific Investment Management Co. sold his house and moved into an apartment."
"Mr. Kiesel's specialty is corporate bonds, which he says have given him a unique perspective on the U.S. housing market. 'Rising home prices have been the key driver of U.S. economic growth, which in turn has played a major role in the tightening of corporate bond spreads,' Mr. Kiesel said."
"Because housing has driven the economy for so long, the slowdown will bring, among other things, tighter lending standards, less willingness to take risk, lower asset price appreciation outside housing, less liquid financial markets and rising volatility."
"Many homebuilders are reporting a 30- to 35-percent year-over-year slide in new orders. Add to this the frenetic pace at which builders have acquired land in the past few years and prospects dim further. 'Over the next few years, homebuilders will either flood the market with additional inventory or be forced to write-down the value of the undeveloped land on their balance sheets,' Mr. Kiesel said."
"'Anything that has to do with outfitting a house is a candidate,' Mr. Kiesel added. 'Housing will have a multiplier effect; that's why it's probably the leading indicator on the economy.'"
"Once homeowners wise up to the fact that the 'For Sale' sign has become a permanent fixture on their next-door neighbor's front lawn, other industries such as luxury retail and travel and leisure will follow."