A pair of housing analysts have predictions out today. "Real estate economist Gary Watts has revised his optimistic forecast for the Orange County housing market, telling an industry gathering this morning that he expects prices to go up 11 or 12 percent in 2006, and saying the gain could even be smaller."

"Watts, who had forecast that local home prices would go up 15 percent this year, now believes that annual appreciation could be as low as 8 or 9 percent. 'It's been an absolute miserable six months in terms of real estate,' Watts said."

"'I think we probably are not going to see 15 (percent), but I think 11 or 12 (percent) is still realistic.'"

The Review Journal in Las Vegas. "Despite historically high inventory, the cost of housing in the Las Vegas Valley increased in the first half of 2006 and will continue to rise through the end of the year, according to housing analysts."

"'There never was a bubble in Las Vegas, and there isn't one in the future,' said Larry Murphy, president of real estate monitoring firm SalesTraq."

"Steve Bottfeld, a senior analyst with research firm Marketing Solutions, said the price increases should continue through the end of 2006 even as sales decline. The overall falloff in closings will come as the market grapples with substantial inventory. About 20,000 resales are on the market in Las Vegas as investors and homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages look to trade in their properties."

"'Speculators and people who bought homes with (adjustable-rate mortgages) in 2004 are in a lot of trouble and they're trying to get out,' Bottfeld said." "Bottfeld..noted that his market research in the second quarter uncovered for the first time local consumers who have canceled out of up to three new-home deals as they leave their existing home on the market in search of higher offers."

"Housing supply is also abundant in the new-home sector. Area builders were actively selling 503 subdivisions in June, a record high for the market and a 17.2 percent increase over the 429 communities they were marketing in June 2005, Murphy said."

"The condominium-conversion market has a two-year supply of homes, with 15,785 apartment units designated as potential conversions, Murphy said, though he added there were no guarantees that all those rentals would change over to for-sale properties."

"In the high-rise and mid-rise submarket, 37,307 units are in planning, marketing or under construction, SalesTraq's numbers show. But Murphy said that glut of supply isn't alarming because developers will take up to four years to finish those projects."