'I've Never Seen A Soft Landing In 53 Years': CEO
Some housing bubble reports from Wall Street and Washington. "Downward momentum in the U.S. housing market is leading some of America's biggest mortgage lenders to launch new cost cuts and risk reduction strategies that suggest growing concern that the outlook is worsening for the $9.5 trillion home mortgage industry."
"'I've never seen a soft-landing in 53 years, so we have a ways to go before this levels out,' Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo said on a Tuesday conference call. 'I have to prepare the company for the worst that can happen.'"
"At New Century, one of the nation's biggest subprime lenders, CEO Brad Morrice told Reuters the company has tightened some credit requirements as it puts 'more thought into loans you want to make or don't want to make.'"
The Union Tribune. "An avalanche of investors paying top dollar to buy office buildings, San Diego's commercial real estate market may be showing signs of slowing. GreenPoint Mortgage vacated 110,000 square feet on Willow Creek Road along the I-15 corridor. And Capital One is leaving several floors in the First National Bank tower downtown."
From MarketWatch. "Pulte Homes announced today net new home orders for the quarter were 9,455 homes, which represent declines of 30% and 29%, respectively, from prior year second-quarter results. 'Our second quarter results reflect the changing dynamics being experienced in the homebuilding industry,' said Richard Dugas, Jr., CEO."
"'The supply of homes for sale continues to increase, while greater buyer uncertainty about purchasing a home at this time is being further impacted by their inability to sell existing homes and the effect higher prices and interest rates are having on overall affordability,' Dugas said."
"Meritage Homes today announced second-quarter results for the period ended June 30, 2006. 'Demand from investors and speculative buyers has decreased dramatically; inventories are up; and price concessions have increased. These conditions make it more difficult for our buyers to sell their existing homes, resulting in higher order cancellations. While gross orders for the second quarter of 2006 were down 17% compared to the previous year's quarter, higher cancellation rates reduced net orders by 28% for the same period,' said CEO Steven Hilton."
"For the first time in more than a decade, home prices could start to fall around the country in coming months, the NAR said Tuesday. David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said he expects 'price numbers to start deteriorating.'"
"On Thursday, the Commerce Department will report new-home sales for June, and economists such as Phillip Neuhart of Wachovia expect those figures, too, to show continuing weakness. 'The numbers are not fully counting cancellations, which builders are reporting at a very high level,' Neuhart said."
From Bloomberg. "The National Association of Homebuilders 'believes that the Federal Reserve has been relying on deficient inflation measures to rationalize the interest rate hikes that have been taking a serious toll on the housing sector,' Joseph M. Stanton, the association's chief lobbyist, wrote."
"'Ironically, much of the recent increase in `core' consumer price inflation that the Federal Reserve is trying to control with higher interest rates is coming from a weakening housing market, which is increasing the demand for rental units. That translates into a sizeable increase in the large `owners' equivalent rent' components of the core inflation measures,' Stanton said."
"'Fighting an increase in core inflation stemming from this component is an inappropriate use of monetary policy, since tighter policy will cause rents to rise further and put additional upward pressure on the core inflation measures,' he argued."
"Tens of thousands of new and existing condo units are on the market, and thousands more are under construction. In other instances, some older apartment complexes, which were to be converted to condos, will be renovated and remain on the rental market."
"The Commerce Department reported yesterday that the number of unsold homes on the market rose to 3.725 million units, almost 40 percent more than a year earlier. 'This implies that we are only at an early stage of home sale problems,' economist Ken Mayland told his clients. 'At some point along the way, prices could crack big time.'"