'Tipping Point' May Be Approaching In California
Some housing bubble news from California. The North County Times. "Higher rates have had an great effect on buyers who hold homes as part of their investment portfolio, real estate agents say. Many such investors plan to rent out the houses for a year or two before selling for a profit, and people in the industry are divided over whether those investors' reactions will tilt the rental market toward tenants or toward owners."
"Danny Morris, who rents a house in Menifee, said tenants are in a pretty good position now, at least compared with people who own their house. Morris pays less than $1,400 a month to live in a 1,450-square-foot house. The average Southern California homebuyer, meanwhile, committed to a $2,437 mortgage payment last month, according to DataQuick."
"'It's better for a renter right now than for a buyer,' Morris said. 'I know some of them have humongous payments, and there's no way they can get that out of a renter.'"
"'Right now you can't go rent out a house for a positive cash flow or even break even,' said Marsha Swanson, a longtime real estate agent who has also owned and rented out several houses over the years."
"Pat Davis, who manages roughly 100 local rental houses, said she actually expects more houses to come onto the rental market in the next year. That's because many investors are finding it more difficult to 'flip' houses, to sell them quickly for profit without renting them out. When the houses don't sell, such investors are being forced to find renters just to cover the mortgages on the houses, Davis said."
The San Diego Business Journal. "A risk that could sink the local economy is a housing slowdown, followed by more energy cost jumps and fallout from the city’s pension fund scandal."
"'The condo market is where most of the major correction is taking place,' economist Lynn Reaser said. Another certain sign that the housing boom is over is the length of time houses are staying on the market, Reaser noted. 'People who have their house on the market can’t believe they aren’t getting their asking price.'"
The LA Daily News. "It looks like this unwinding real-estate market is going to make more of a mess than expected. 'I don't think there is any doubt it's going to be a harder landing than was originally forecast,' said financial analyst Greg McBride. 'The forecasts were made with the rose-colored glasses still firmly in place.'"
"In some places prices in June did something not seen in a long time, fall under year-ago levels. Of the 101 markets in Los Angeles County, the median price in 16 fell under the year-ago level, including Tarzana ($567,000, down 27.2 percent) and Calabasas ($1.1 million, down 17 percent), according to DataQuick."
"A tipping point may be fast approaching here in the Valley, too. 'The fact is appreciation has pushed affordability beyond the bounds of many buyers and that, coupled with a rising interest-rate environment is bound to have an effect on people,' McBride said."
The Orange County Register. "Orange County's hot real estate markets led to the county's biggest boost in property tax bills in 15 years. The county charged property owners $3.8 billion for the year ending June 30, a 10.5 percent jump from a year ago and the biggest year-over-year increase since 1991."
"There was one troubling trend in the numbers, county treasurer John Moorlach said. The percentage of unpaid tax reached its highest level in eight years. Owners stiffed the county out of 1.52 percent of taxes owed. In dollar terms, the $57.7 million in unpaid taxes increased 44 percent vs. a year ago."
"Lenders last month mailed 462 notices of default to borrowers who had missed several home mortgage payments, a 90 percent jump from a year ago, DataQuick says."