'We Could Be Overbuilding' In Alaska
A pair of rare reports on housing in Alaska. "Homer was rich in modest homes on a couple acres of land for prices the average Homer wage-earner could afford. The tide began to shift in the late '90s. The average sales price of a Homer-area home crept upward from $119,000 in 1999 to $132,000 in 2002. In 2003, that number jumped nearly 8.5 percent, and by last year, it had soared to $190,000."
"In some areas of Homer, the leap was even more dramatic. What cost $136,000 in 2002 was suddenly worth $215,500 in 2005."
"While home prices have risen dramatically, wages have not. The average household income in the Kenai Peninsula Borough in 1999 was between $40,000 and $50,000. A retiree who just sold a home in California ma be able to afford those prices, but the average Homer resident still can not."
"Census figures show an increase in residents with those kinds of bankrolls, but the vast majority remain well below such income ranges."
The Alaska Journal. "Still growing, but slowing, best describes residential real estate sales in the Matanuska Valley, which have cooled a bit in the wake of a surge of development. 'It's common knowledge that there are more active listings of real estate than there were at the same time last year, but the cause of that is somewhat in question,' said banker Taka Tsukada."
"'The market has changed,' Anchorage demographics consultant Sue Fison said. 'It's the affordability issue.' Those families who could qualify financially for a certain-sized home a year ago may not qualify now, she said."
"Another real estate agent selling property in the same subdivision had a different vision of the market, saying several builders constructed homes on speculation last year."
"One prominent developer, Chuck Spinelli, acknowledged that the market has slowed down considerably, probably by 25 percent. 'It's a mystery,' Spinelli said. 'It probably had a little to do with (rising) interest rates, gas prices, and might have a lot to do with the number of unlicensed residential contractors operating out here.'"
"Builder Dennis Byler said he hasn't noticed any overbuilding in multi-family housing. While the number of large 'for rent' signs continue to increase around these properties, Byler said he is not getting any feedback from his customers that they are having trouble renting what they bought from his company. 'I'm building another duplex right now,' Byler said."
"(Homebuilder) Jess Hall was less enthusiastic. 'We are seeing a slowdown in the market this year compared to the last few years,' he said. 'We could be overbuilding, but it's hard to tell,' Hall said. 'We don't have a permit process,' which makes it hard to determine just how many new homes are building built, he said."