Bubble-Sitting: 'Roulette Or Sound Reasoning?'
Readers suggested this article as a weekend topic. "Convinced home prices will fall? So are a lot of other Americans. Some, known as bubble sitters, are acting on their conviction. They’re cashing out by selling their homes and renting, figuring they’ll return to the market after prices have fallen."
"Bubble sitters also include those people who have never owned a home and are waiting to take the plunge, along with folks who are relocating and holding on to their cash until the market in their new hometown softens."
"Many experts have labeled the majority of U.S. housing markets either overvalued or severely overvalued, but is it wise to count on prices falling?"
One reader says, "There is a first time for everything, and I believe this will be the first time postwar prices go down. It’s also true that home prices in San Diego have fallen during the period since this time last year."
"If the Feds stop raising rates, the bond market could anticipate a lack of resolve to fight inflation, resulting in runaway long-term interest rates and a need for Bernanke or his successor to crash the economy into a wall in order to prevent a total meltdown. It happened in 1980-1982, but I realize this time is different."
"Real estate always goes up in the long run, blah, blah, blah… But so do stocks, right? What happened, then, from 1929 through 1945? Lots of folks learned what Keynes meant when he said, 'In the long run, we are all dead,' as the protracted market downturn outlasted their staying power."
"Something similar happened in the Japanese real estate market between 1990 and 2006, a sixteen year period of bubble unraveling. So the question is not whether housing prices go up *eventually*, but soon enough for it to make sense for an owner (especially a new buyer) to endure a protracted period of falling prices."
Another replied, "16 years and the last of the baby boomers are retired or 'dead.' The ones who rented and SAVED the extra median $800.00 a month (difference between median rent and mortgage) will retire o.k. The ones whose houses finally get up to the price that they paid will be wishing they had not thrown that money away."