FOMC: 'Which Way Do We Go?'
Several readers suggested a topic about the Fed rate decision this coming week. "I think that the most important driver is the Federal Reserve. There’s pressure to raise a quarter given what has happened with other central bankers this week. And there is pressure to pause due to pressure on ARM folks. Which way do we go? As a saver, I’d prefer a hike."
A reply, "One more interest rate raise of 25bps on August 8th. Also, a statement basically saying that a pause is coming at the next meeting."
And another, "Since I believe that a recession is nigh unavoidable, I’d rather see them fight inflation. Of course the market prediction has been 'one more quarter point, they they’re done' for the past 6 meetings or so."
One said, "Track record of the FED is to put off the day of reckoning for another time. I’d like to see a couple more rate hikes, but believe that they are finished for the time being."
One agreed, "Unfortunately, I am of the same opinion. I believe Paulsons comments earlier this week about a 'strong dollar' have evaporated. China believes that it is now able to float the Yuan without impacting its export economy."
"'So much manufacturing capacity has moved to China that foreign-owned firms now account for 51 percent of China’s trade surplus, up from 3 percent in 2000, according to Lehman Brothers.' Trade surplus may defy orthodox currency cure."
The Washington Post. "Federal Reserve policy-makers haven't provided a wink, a nod or even a coded phrase to telegraph what they plan to do with interest rates when they gather Tuesday, the first time in three years the outcome has been uncertain so close to their meeting."
"The reason, analysts say, is simple: Fed members themselves don't know, with some pressing for the 18th consecutive increase in interest rates and others ready for a break."
"Bernanke used his most recent public appearance (to) outline the collective goal of the policy-making Federal Open Market Committee: a so-called soft landing in which the economy slows down just enough to tame inflation without sliding into recession."
"And he said the forecast represents what the policy-makers expect to happen if they adjust interest rates just right, without saying specifically how they will do so. This approach is called 'inflation forecast targeting' by Fed economists and academics."
"Now, Fed policy-makers are divided about what to do. They do not know if the housing market slowdown is going to continue to be 'orderly,' as Bernanke has described it, or worsen sharply."
"With the economy losing steam and inflation accelerating, the Fed does not want to raise rates too much and tip the economy into recession, or raise rates too timidly and let inflation get out of control. 'If you don't know which way you're going, it's hard to send up a flare,' said former Fed vice chairman Alan S. Blinder. 'This is pretty close to a 50-50 call.'"