How Far Down Is Down?
Readers want your opinion on how low will real estate go. "Topic Suggestion: How far down is down? Stated in terms like this; return to 2004 prices, 1997 prices, 1985 + 20% prices for your local market."
A reply, "My own opinion, based on observing a couple of downturns here in Australia. 'Soft Landing' - Average real price falls (either mean or median). 'Hard Landing' - Average nominal price falls. 'Crash' - Average nominal price falls more than 10%."
And another said, "Some believe you need a new bubble to fully burst the old one; probably this is main reason why we dont see 'panic' selling, yet."
One reader points to Japan. "For those that believe the collapse will be short with only a 30% drop from todays news: Japan Times."
"The gap in land prices between large and small cities continues to widen even though the average price in select areas has moved higher for the first time in 14 years. The National Tax Agency said Tuesday that land prices in Tokyo and Nagoya rose more than 20 percent as of Jan. 1, while the pace of the drop in nine prefectures expanded."
"But the area in front of JR Akita Station stands in stark contrast, as it is quiet even on holidays. Some shops are closed and have notices asking for tenants. One female shopkeeper said, 'The area in front of the station is always deserted.'"
"The land price per square meter in front of the station is 230,000 yen, sharply down from 1.4 million yen in 1993. The price has fallen for 13 years."