'On The Back Side Of The Cycle' In Nevada
The Review Journal reports from Las Vegas. "Dennis Smith, president of Home Builders Research, counted 2,869 recorded new home sales in July, compared with 3,071 sales in the same month a year ago. The slowdown is really being felt on the resale side, Smith said. Sales of existing homes in July totaled 3,512, down from 5,361 a year ago. For the year, resales have slid 22 percent to 26,817."
"Real estate professionals point to a record inventory of 20,273 homes on the market as the reason why homes aren't selling as quickly and prices are being reduced in many neighborhoods. 'Can the housing market get much worse? Yes,' Smith said. 'Will it? Probably.'"
"SalesTraq President Larry Murphy said the 'traditional new construction segment' of the market, excluding apartment conversions and high-rise condos, showed a median price of $335,315, up 5.5 percent from a year ago. 'It would be prudent to point out that these prices do not include the many incentives that are being offered by most builders,' he said."
"Values of the inducements will vary and the focus has changed from decorating upgrades and closing costs to financing, Smith said. Some of the larger builders are offering interest rate 'buydowns.'"
"If an average value of 6 percent on the incentive packages were reflected in the price, the median for July would be in the range of $318,000, or less than 1 percent increase, Smith said. He speculated that the incentive factor is probably much higher, so 'net' median prices are at or below what they were a year ago."
"'Basically, the market is on the back side of the cycle,' said Josh Seime, regional manager for Metrostudy. 'When you start seeing a buildup of inventory, you know it's going to get competitive.'"
"Detached production is declining as builders look to reduce their inventory, Seime said. Housing starts fell to 6,834 in the quarter, compared with 7,061 in the same period a year ago."
The Nevada Appeal. "Incline Village's predominant second-home market this summer felt the aftershock of slumping job and real estate markets in Southern California, the Bay Area and Southern and Northern Nevada."
"A slowing job market (statewide, California added just 900 jobs last month; its recent average has been 17,400 per month), combined with recent hikes in interest, have led to a basin-wide real estate slowdown."
"The proof may be in the numbers. From January to August 2005 348 homes, condos and PUDs sold in Incline. At press time, only 180 homes, condos and PUDs have sold thus far in 2006. 'The numbers you see are off about 50 percent, which is actually an improvement from a month ago, so we'll see, the real story will be after September and October,' (broker) Chris Plastiras said."
"Many Incline Realtors said this summer's swoon and uncertain future to follow is a picture that is highly interpretive and speculative. Three things seem certain however: It's not 2003 anymore. The 'condo boom' is over, for now; and there are more than 400 homes, condos and PUD (free-standing homes with lots collectively owned) properties on the market, the most in the past half-decade."