'Demand Has Evaporated': CEO
Some housing bubble reports from Wall Street and Washington. "CEO Robert Toll said the U.S. housing market got ahead of itself due to greed on the part of buyers and sellers, and that it now likely faces the highest level of speculative inventory ever. 'Every day there's an article about how lousy housing is now and how dumb you have to be to buy a house now,' the CEO said Tuesday at the Credit Suisse Homebuilders Symposium."
"Don Tomnitz, CEO of D.R. Horton Inc., Tuesday said the company is preparing itself for a tougher housing market in 2007 compared to 2006, with prices finally stabilizing in 2008. 'We have never seen housing prices and demand slow as quickly as they have during this downcycle,' said the CEO of the nation's largest home builder when measured by 2005 deliveries."
"'Demand has evaporated to the extent of about 20% to 30% for the industry, and in a tighter timeframe than we've seen before.' The use of incentives by builders to move homes in a slower sales environment will continue for the next three to four quarters, Tomnitz estimated."
"The CEO of home builder Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. said housing markets are changing 'quite dramatically' and that new-home prices have effectively reversed through the use of concessions and incentives. Speculators and investors were a greater part of the market than anyone realized, and are now contributing to the inventory overhang of homes as they stop buying and relist homes, said Ara Hovnanian."
"'Buyer psychology has shifted..buyers are more content to wait on the sidelines than they were,' the CEO said. 'Cancellation rates have been creeping up.'"
The Motley Fool. "The publicly traded homebuilders were amazingly aggressive in their land acquisition strategies over the past several years, and they are paying for it now in interest expense and write-downs."
"On their income statements all but 3 of the smallest builders are still showing large profits. However, cash flow statements show that the builders are burning through cash and increasing borrowings at an alarming rate. With sales in the early stages of a long, steep decline, they are putting themselves at the mercy of creditors, which I expect will result in bankruptcy for some of them."
From Inman News. "It's altogether too easy to blame real estate's excessive number of newbies for a variety of ills in the industry that include intense competition, downward pressure on commissions (a boon to sellers, though not brokers) and unethical behavior. But the newbies themselves, as a group, aren't at fault for these conditions."
"Rather, the responsibility lies at the feet of state lawmakers, real estate brokers, trade associations, licensing schools and, admittedly, the media."
"A slowing U.S. housing market and the possibility of a major oil supply disruption are two of the biggest risks to the world's economy, International Monetary Fund head Rodrigo Rato said Tuesday."
"'With the housing market in the U.S. cooling faster than anticipated, there is a risk of an abrupt slowdown in the U.S. which could derail the global expansion,' Rato told a conference."
"U.S. lawmakers will question some leading government and industry economists about the perils of a possible 'housing bubble' in a Wednesday hearing. Lawmakers wanted the session 'because we've heard a great deal about the possibility of a housing bubble for several years now,' said Sen. Wayne Allard."
"The hearing, 'The Housing Bubble and its Implications for the Economy," will be held in an open session of the Senate Banking Committee at 10 a.m.. Next week, the same committee will hold a hearing on the growth of innovative mortgage products that have mushroomed along with the housing sector."
"'The economy has been buoyed for some time by unrealistic expectations about the appreciation of housing prices,' said Jack Reed, from Rhode Island, who is helping sponsor the meeting. 'Now that the housing market is cooling, the economy may be headed for a bumpy landing.'"