'Unhealthy' Prices 'Precipitate An Adjustment': NAR
Some national reports on the housing bubble. "Housing prices are expected to continue to have a limited fall throughout 2006, according to the National Association of Realtors. 'After five years of outstanding growth, the housing market is undergoing a period of adjustment and becoming more and more of a balanced market between buyers and sellers,' says Thomas Stevens, president of NAR, in testimony Wednesday before the U.S. Senate Subcommittee."
"'We were seeing home prices and mortgage debt servicing cost-to-income ratios increase to unhealthy levels in some housing markets, which precipitate an adjustment,' says Mr. Stevens."
"The National Association of Home Builders told Congress today that the current downswing in home sales and housing production following the record housing boom of 2004-2005 is expected to bottom out around the middle of next year."
"Testifying before the Senate Subcommittees, NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders said..the record housing starts and sales of the past two years were well above levels supportable by demographics and other fundamental demand factors, and were fueled to a great extent by investors and speculators seeking to make a quick profit and through the surge of unconventional ARMs."
"'In retrospect, it was the finance and price-driven acceleration of buying for homeownership and for investment that drove housing market activity into unsustainable territory during the boom,' he said."
From Business Week. "In the summer of 2005, the Phoenix real estate market was experiencing what local brokers call a 'feeding frenzy.' A year later, the city is feeling the effects of a housing hangover."
"'I've been here 17 years, and I don't think I've ever seen the inventory levels as high as today,' says Robert Rucker of the Arizona Regional MLS. Phoenix's housing inventory has in fact nearly quadrupled over a 12-month period, from 11,656 in July, 2005, to 42,449 homes last July, according to ZipRealty."
"'Not only has the inventory increased threefold, but the amount of buyers on the market is less than half of what it was last year,' notes (realtor) Ron Fillion in Miami. Fillion believes the city will retain a high inventory in proportion to its population for at least the next two years."
"ZipRealty has tracked the (Las Vegas) market as growing by about 150% over the past six months, hitting a record high of 21,662 homes for sale in July. Linda Rheinberger, Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors's president, has advocated several strategies to sellers that could help bring the market back to equilibrium."
"'We're encouraging people who aren't motivated to sell to delist and place a tenant in their property,' she says. But the most effective selling catalyst, in Rheinberger's mind, is always the simplest: 'Prices are always going to be the main consideration in any marketplace.'"
From CNN Money. "With real estate markets slowing and mortgage rates well above levels of recent years, times are getting tougher for homeowners, the number of homes entering into some stage of foreclosure is surging."
"In August, 115,292 properties entered into foreclosure, according to RealtyTrac. That was 24 percent above the level in July and 53 percent higher than a year earlier. Florida, had more than 16,533 properties in foreclosure in August. That led all states and was 50 percent higher than in July and 62 percent higher than in August 2005."
"California foreclosures are increasing at an even faster annual rate, up 160 percent since last year to 12,506. And the formerly red-hot Nevada market recorded a spike of 24 percent compared with July and a whopping 255 percent increase from August 2005."
"RealtyTrac's Rick Sharga says the rising foreclosure numbers are in part the result of rising monthly payments on adjustable-rate mortgages, which have a low introductory interest rate that heads higher after an initial period. 'Usually, foreclosures are a lagging [market] indicator,' he says. 'But we've never had a situation like this with adjustable-rate mortgages amounting to $400 billion to $500 billion coming up for adjustment over the rest of the year.'"
"'The real wild card is the nature of the loans themselves. Historically, ARMs were underwritten pretty conservatively. There has been a loosening of standards with lower credit worthiness and smaller down payments,' Sharga says"
Thw Wall Street Journal. "Home sales have plunged over the past year in many areas where prices had soared over the preceding five years, notably in California, Florida, Arizona, Massachusetts and the Washington, D.C., area. Many potential buyers are waiting for prices to come down further."
"Sellers gradually seem to be realizing that they will have to lower prices, says Patrick Lashinsky, at ZipRealty. 'There's finally some realism getting into the picture.'"
"Ivy Zelman, a housing analyst at Credit Suisse Group, estimates that prices of newly built homes in San Diego, Sacramento, Calif., Phoenix, northern Virginia and southwest Florida already are down as much as 10% to 15% from a year ago. That estimate includes 'concessions' from builders, which are disguised price cuts. But Ms. Zelman still sees more price declines ahead."
"'We believe that the housing market is still in the early innings of a hard landing that will likely take several years to develop,' she says."