'Sellers Are Dropping Prices More Than In The Past'
The Journal News reports from New York. "Early indications from executives of Lower Hudson Valley Realtors associations show that swelling inventories continue to put pressure on housing prices. Preliminary data for Rockland County shows the median sales price dropped 8.4 percent to $490,0000 in August from $535,000 a year earlier."
"Inventories jumped 47.7 percent to 1,594 from 1,079, while sales fell 24 percent to 165 from 217 in August 2005. Roberta Bangs, the president of the Rockland County Board of Realtors, said the drop reflects a lack of buyers for homes priced over $1 million. 'The upper-priced homes have basically stopped dead,' she said."
"Homes listed at under $500,000 are driving most sales, which helped push the median lower, she said."
"P. Gilbert Mercurio, the CEO of the Westchester County Board of Realtors said Friday that he'd taken a peek at some preliminary data. 'I think the inventory is going to climb even more. What's abnormal is that the sales volume isn't keeping up with what it was.'"
"The Journal News calculated that Westchester's months-of-inventory ratio stood at 10.4, putting it within the range of a balanced market."
"If you count yourself among the skeptics who scoff at talk of a housing bubble, you would have found good company three years ago in one coterie of economists who set out to prove the doom-and-gloomers wrong."
"'We were very suspicious of that talk and thought it was a bunch of hooey,' said Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp."
"'Our initial research found in 2003 that only seven metro areas appeared to be overpriced,' DeKaser said. 'When you took the total market value of those markets, it only accounted for about 2 percent of the housing value in the country."
"'As time played out, housing prices not only continued to rise but continued to rise at an accelerating pace,' DeKaser recalled."
"Late last month, the venture's analysis appeared to all but sound an alarm about overvalued housing prices. The most recent estimate of valuations for the second quarter found that 79 of the 317 markets were 'extremely overvalued and at risk for a future price correction.' Those 79 markets also accounted for about 40 percent of the estimated value of all of the nation's single-family homes, DeKaser said."
"So we had to ask the economists: If circumstances led to their relocation to the New York area, knowing that the model estimates prices are overvalued by 21.7 percent, would they buy now?"
"'If I was moving to your area and expecting to stay for a long time, I would buy a house and forget about all this,' DeKaser said. And if he only expected to be here for three years? 'I certainly would not buy,' he said, 'because I do not see a reasonable expectation for appreciation.'"
The Courier Post from New Jersey. "'Two years ago, even my dog could have sold real estate,'" said Anthony Yula, (realtor) in Woodbury. 'Hang a sign around his neck and get him to bark, and the house would have sold.'"
"Once super-charged, the real estate market canters along at a slower pace today."
"New Jersey's resale inventory was 67 percent higher in August than it was in January, Patrick O'Keefe of the New Jersey Builders Association said. 'Selling this backlog of homes will take nine months, even if no more listings are taken,' O'Keefe said.'
"Through August this year, 11,865 homes have sold in Burlington, Camden and Gloucester counties, and another 23,805 remain listed."
"Cathie Galanti in Sewell, says her office has 14 percent more listings now than it did six months ago. Higher-priced homes, she notes, are slipping in value. 'Prices are definitely not going up as quickly and homes in the range of $300,000 and above seem to to be coming down, about 7 percent within the last year,' she said."
"In New Jersey, Drew Fishman wonders if some customers are being scared off by national media reports. 'I believe the biggest problem is perception, that the market is awful and that some unknown balloon has burst,' said Fishman, who is first VP of the New Jersey Association of Realtors."
"Tracy Harris said her buyers seem to be in a wait-and-see mode. 'They know that the market is slowing down,' said Harris, who hangs her license in Sewell. 'They are seeing that sellers are cooperating more and dropping (listing) prices more than they have in the past.'"