"The New Normal" In New York
Newsday reports from New York. "The new normal of real estate, For Sale signs on every block and slipping prices, is here to stay, at least for a little while. The median price of a home in Nassau County was $480,000 last month, 4 percent, or $20,000, lower than a year ago, according to data released Thursday by the Long Island Multiple Listing Service."
"Perhaps even more significant was the disparity between the continued increase in inventory, by about 50 percent annually, and the annual decline in the number of closed sales, 20 percent for Nassau, 24 percent for Suffolk. Gross dollar volume of closed sales is down too, 6.5 percent less than a year ago, a decline that could ripple through the economy."
"'Real estate has been a driving force in the Long Island economy for the past five years and, to some extent, for the last decade,' said Pearl Kamer, chief economist of the Long Island Association. She said that the market affects spending and jobs, and a downturn could slow the economy overall."
"It would take 13 months for the homes listed in Suffolk and Queens to sell at the current pace. Nassau has an 11 months' supply. Many potential buyers are on the sidelines, but low interest rates may bring some new ones, said Judy Markowitz, broker in Flushing. 'But there's still not going to be enough buyers to absorb all the inventory.'"
"That's especially true, Markowitz noted, because asking prices in some areas are still rising. 'Sellers will need to negotiate if they want to be the bride rather than the bridesmaid,' she added."
"The problem, said buyers agent Beth Marten, is that sellers and buyers alike are following a 'herd mentality.' When the boom began, buyers paid whatever they could to get a house. Now, the opposite is true. But buyer be aware, said Marten: 'There are good deals that can occur at any given moment.'"
The New York Observer. "The housing market has been nudging downward for a while now. Add one more factor: the overhaul, recommended this morning by the city housing department, of the so-called 421a tax break. Housing commissioner Shaun Donovan said in a conference call this morning that condo 'prices would potentially go down to some degree' in neighborhoods where the abatements would be eliminated."
"In those neighborhoods, like Tribeca, the Financial District, Dumbo and Brooklyn Heights, prices have been inflated by about 50 percent of the value of those abatements, he said." Just how much difference would that make? The abatements were worth $40,000 to $210,000 over their lifetimes, so prices would come down $20,000 to $105,000 just because of that one change. 'It's very clear that implementing these changes in a measured way over time is the right way to do this so that there is not a one-time significant impact,' Donovan told reporters."
"That said, Mayor Bloomberg said early this year that real estate prices were too high, so we don't imagine he is too worried."
The New York Sun. "Clearly the boom in the condominium market we were experiencing over the last few years and reached its peak about 12 months ago has cooled and the bloom is off the rose."
"The vice president and regional manager at Fremont Investment & Loan, Patrick Crandall chimed in: 'In terms of Manhattan, while its true inventories are climbing, it is really only in comparison to the frenzied absorption we have seen for the past several years. Buyers now know they have time to think and shop before making their purchase decision. I think buyers are taking longer to commit than they otherwise might, because they keep reading about an impending market decline in the papers and fear if they buy now their apartment will lose value.'"
"'While some ill conceived, poorly located, or overpriced condominium projects will likely suffer somewhat in the marketplace, well designed, well located, and smartly conceived projects should sell nicely, though, perhaps, not as rapidly as a year ago,' said Robert Ivanhoe."
"'The residential market in Hoboken, Jersey City, and Philadelphia has slowed though quality unique projects are still selling,' the principal of Hoboken Brownstone Company, Daniel Gans, said. 'There is a lot of product being built and until that inventory is soaked up new starts will continue to slow down.'"
"A partner at Apollo Real Estate Advisors LP, William McCahill said, 'Once the market perceives that prices have hit the floor, demand will return, stronger than most expect. Right now the market sees a falling knife which no one wants to grasp because of fear of injury. Financing for new condo projects and conversions are beginning to dry up. Once the press stops making negative predictions on housing prices, the boomers may start to snap up available inventory,' he said."
"Principal at Stellar Management, Robert Rosania said, 'It is impossible for one environment to totally avoid what every other location has felt. With so much supply coming to market, the market is ripe for a major correction.'"