"What Is A Soft Landing?"
Readers suggested a topic about a 'soft landing.' "How about this issue: what is a soft landing?"
"I expect a soft landing, but my definition of the term is a lot different than that of the NAR. In my definition, the price of housing retreats to affordable levels (by traditional measures) in three years, with big nominal decline in 2007 and real declines afterward, and the excess inventory is absorbed at lower, affordable prices. But the economy is either flat or has a mild recession in 2007, followed by a recovery, instead of collapsing."
"I call that the good 'soft landing' scenario, and I think most posters here would agree. Especially those writing about canned goods, ammo and 'senior vittles.'"
A reply, "I would call that a soft landing for the economy, but not for the housing market. I have proposed the following scale a couple of times, and judging by the MSM headlines we’re starting to see in various states it seems to be holding up OK."
"Using category 1,2 etc meanings from hurricane parlance; Soft Landing = Real median price decline. Hard Landing = Nominal median price decline. Category 1 Crash = More than 10% nominal median price decline. Category 2 Crash = More than 20% nominal median price decline, and so on."
"A nominal median price decline is a lot harder than it seems at first glance, due to buyer substitution effects and increasing seller incentives that are now being frequently remarked on."
Another said, "I would consider a nominal median price decline of 10% to be a very soft landing. That would only be enough to take the tip off the rediculous prices. 30% would just start to be reasonable prices. I wouldn’t consider it a hard landing at less than 40% nominal median decline."
The second poster answered, "I respectfully disagree. A 40% median price decline is similar to what happened in the Houston area during the 80’s oil bust, and that was regarded (and reported) as an almost apocalyptic crash, well worthy of the Category 4 that my scale would give it."
"In the UK in the early 1990’s, there was a Real Estate crash which saw something like 30% of all homeowners in the South-East (which includes London, and is the region with the highest prices and wages) in negative equity. Yet the nominal median fell by less than 20% from peak to trough (which took 4 or 5 years)."
The Herald Net from Washington. "It used to be a popular notion among local real estate agents that the Northwest housing market lagged behind the California market by about six months. I thought about that idea recently when I read that home sales decreased 30.1 percent in August in California from the same month in 2005, the largest sales decline since August 1982."
"Things are a bit different here, and will continue to be. While the past 24 months have been crazy, the long-term outlook for the Puget Sound housing market continues to be bright. Local prices are not headed backward or even close to a 'soft landing.'"
"The 'soft landing' term began about a year ago when David Lereah, the National Association of Realtor's chief economist, tried to steer clear of any concept of national or regional housing bubbles, preferring to substitute balloons for bubbles. He confused many observers by saying: 'Balloons don't burst. You can put air in a balloon and it expands or you can take air out and it shrinks. We're hearing a hissing sound not a pop ... there's a soft landing ahead.'"
"'I don't see a lot of areas in the country are really in for a soft landing,' said Joe DiPaola, real estate attorney and broker. 'I think what we have seen is that some areas have gotten absolutely hammered and others have slowed down just a bit. So, when you look at it on average I guess you call that a soft landing.'"
"John Tuccillo, one of the nation's leading real estate economists, continues to assert that the local economy is the prime mover of single-family homes. 'No housing market has ever collapsed unless the underlying economy went sour,' Tuccillo said. 'Short of recession, this means that virtually every housing market in the U.S. will hold up even though sales may slump and prices decline.'"
"So, when your friends in California swear the sky is falling and real estate will no longer be the same, remind them that property is cyclical and that their neighborhood will rebound when the 'down' period ends late next year. And, the down period in the Puget Sound will mean slower, not negative, appreciation."
The Rocky Mountain News. "Denver business and civic leaders thought they knew fast growth and big construction. Then they arrived here and started counting construction cranes. 'I went out on my hotel room balcony this morning and saw nine,' one traveler said. 'Looking out my window, there were 13 cranes,' said another."
"Indeed, the level of building activity is staggering. One rendering showed nearly 100 buildings, big and small, under construction or in development along Miami's skyline. Miami Mayor Manny Diaz told the group $30 billion of private-sector projects - including 90,000 residential units, are under way or permitted."
"The big question, of course, is how Miami will cope if, some say when, this all comes crashing down. Early evidence suggests there is no contingency plan, as Friday's first session was titled 'Metro Miami's Changing Landscape - Why Real Estate Is Thriving in Southeast Florida.'"
"But even speaker Adolfo Henriques, the CEO of developer Florida East Coast Industries, acknowledged the possibility of an 'adjustment.' 'We're in the midst of a correction in the residential real-estate market, but I believe it's an 18-to-24-month situation, and we will have a soft landing,' Henriques said."