"No Area Of California Is Immune To Adjustments"
The San Bernardino Sun reports from California. "Home prices aren't rising very fast, and in some cases, they're even falling as inventories grow. Sellers are offering incentives and concessions to close deals. Should the would-be homeowner buy now or wait a little longer? The answer depends on who you ask."
"Economist Chris Thornburg says 'the market will be ugly for a couple of years. Prices will continue to soften for awhile with no major rebound.' Thornburg believes home prices throughout Southern California are about 30 percent overvalued."
"Real-estate types, however, remain upbeat. 'In real estate, there is no bad time to buy a house if you need one and can afford one,' said Bill Velto, broker in Upland."
"Sales for new and existing homes in San Bernardino County tumbled 25.8 percent in September compared with September 2005, according to DataQuick. The number of San Bernardino County homeowners entering the first phase of the foreclosure process increased 100 percent in the three-month period ending in September."
"Hanley Wood reported that the standing inventory of unsold new homes in San Bernardino County increased 336 percent from September 2005 to September 2006. To keep inventory from growing, especially toward the end of the year when housing markets slow, many home builders are offering incentives."
"For example, Hesperia-based Frontier Homes is offering incentives of up to $14,000 in closing costs to help get people into houses before the end of the year. The median price of new homes sold in San Bernardino County decreased 4.1 percent between September 2005 and September 2006, DataQuick reported."
The Orange County Register. "DataQuick's latest O.C. home sales data, for the 22 business days ended Oct. 17, strongly hints that October was the eighth straight month where the sales pace was 20 percent or greater below the year-ago pace."
"The last time we saw as deep a drop running for as long a time was in 1991. The most recent median price was a slim 1% above a year ago."
The Union Tribune. "For the first time in six years, San Diego County's economic growth is lagging the rest of the state and nation, according to a report. One of the chief culprits for the slowdown is the decline in home construction and growing softness in prices. In San Diego County, median home prices have dropped 4.4 percent since last year, according to DataQuick."
"Economist Kelly Cunningham, who prepared the forecast, predicted that prices could decline an additional 5 percent over the next year. 'The biggest declines will come in condominium prices,' he said. 'We're really overbuilt in condos. And I'm concerned about the growth of condo conversion.'"
"James Hamilton, economist with the University of California San Diego, said there are signs that housing may be bottoming out. However, there are several factors that could keep prices declining, he said. A spike in loan defaults and foreclosures 'could give us a much uglier scenario.' And home buyers might be slow to enter the market, hoping that the longer they wait to buy a house, the cheaper it will get."
"I think it's a little more likely than not that we have reached the bottom (in housing prices),' he said. 'But there's still a very significant possibility, maybe 30 or 40 percent, that things could get much more frightening.'"
The Desert Sun. "Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, told more than 500 real estate agents, mortgage brokers and other business people at a real estate forecast symposium Thursday in Palm Desert that home sales and median prices statewide are likely to decline slightly from the once 'red-hot market,' then level off over the next 18 months."
"'The housing market is going through an adjustment after a four-year boom that was not sustainable, but the (economic) fundamentals are still very positive for this region,' Appleton-Young said. 'But there's no area of California that is immune to the adjustments,' she said."
"Her forecast that the drop in home sales and home-price appreciation should level off left attendee Robert Dennis, a real estate broker in La Quinta, 'feeling a lot more upbeat' than in recent months. Like many real estate agents across the valley, Dennis is working with sellers to adjust their expectations after several years of double-digit home-price appreciation."
"Now, with more than 8,300 homes listed across the valley this week, competition has heated up and many sellers have begun ratcheting down asking prices."
"One seller of a four-bedroom, three-bath home at in Rancho Mirage slashed the asking price by $125,000 to $770,000, for instance, said Tom Steffen, sales associate in Palm Desert."
"Homebuilders in the valley are likely to get even more aggressive with incentives as their inventories climb, Appleton-Young said."
The Sacramento Bee. "Aiming to move thousands of would-be homebuyers off the fence, the National Association of Realtors is launching a major advertising campaign today. The campaign begins as Sacramento-area analysts suggested this week that more buyers are entering the market, but that local sales prices may fall 10 percent before stabilizing in 2007."
"Capital region real estate agents believe many would-be homebuyers are unnecessarily waiting for the market to bottom out, a situation aggravating record resale inventory, causing headaches for new-home builders and contributing to lower prices."
"El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties have a 7.4 month supply, with nearly 15,000 houses for sale. Though the number of sales are expected to rise about 7 percent next year in the four counties, the number of for-sale signs suggests 'prices are going to decline in most areas,' (broker) Mike Lyon told a North State Building Industry Association gathering Wednesday. 'We've got another year of this, another 10 percent probably, in the next year, of value loss,' he said. 'We won't see true price stabilization until 2007, and then we'll slowly start ramping back up again.'"
"Folsom-based home-builder consultant Greg Paquin told the industry group that new houses won't see 'real increases in pricing until 2009 or 2010, and then it's going to be more modest than we've seen in the past.'"
From USA Today. "Hear that steady hiss? That's the air seeping out of the housing bubble. If you're a struggling real estate agent, now's a good time to consider a new line of work."
"In California alone, the number of real estate agents and brokers increased from 303,351 in 2000 to 511,459 in August 2006. There are too many agents chasing too few sales. No wonder you're struggling. Ever consider consulting?"