Readers suggested the topics of price drops and and statistics. "Is anyone else starting to see early signs of capitulation? In 2 DC area zips which I follow I’ve recently seen a few homes offered at considerably lower prices than the others."

"Ex.: In one neighborhood $339,000 for an older 3 bedroom 1 bath where $369 had been on the low side — or, in the other neighborhood $399,000 for a gorgeous townhouse, where the cheapest unrenovated had been $410,000. (The latter is where we sold our townhouse as is in June 2005 for $395.)"

"In both cases I’m seeing some prices begin to drop in response, while other sellers hold out stubbornly for last year’s highs. The result is there are some really nice places available for quite a bit less than some much worse ones. Seems to me it can’t be long before the sellers begin to wise up — or at least their agents get fed up with carrying them!"

Another said, "Yes, two of the condo communities I’ve been tracking are listing their properties at about 10-15% less than when I started looking in June ‘06. But in the more desirable condo and TH communities, the prices downward have been very sticky."

"A lot more inventory on Craigslist, though. In my area, the only thing that will drive up prices again is out of town investors…and that crowd has left the room. The newly minted flipper types are starting to cut prices, some are even slashing and burning. But overall, the old RE adage holds true: LOCATION, LOCATION,LOCATION. Prices in the fringe areas are dropping faster and more dramatically than in the traditionally stable and 'hot' areas."

One pointed out statistical matters. "I was wondering what actual prices are compared to the % drop being reported. Here in Queens NY, the prices of homes my wife and I are looking at went from around $250,000 -$300,000 in 97-98 to $700,000-$800,000 in 05. That’s close to a 300% increase."

"These houses are now down around 20%. I have not seen these kind of numbers reported. What do you think real world price changes are compared to these 'average' and 'median' changes being reported. I expect prices in Queens to go down 40% in real terms. But I don’t think the stats will show that."

"What I’m saying is that when there is a YOY drop of 3%-4% reported in real world terms that may translate to 10%-15%. As I said, there has been a tripling of prices in Queens, But I see numbers of 50% - 60% reported. A real disparity between the stats and the real world."

Another notes the time lag. "Keep in mind the reported data trails the real world by a few months. Example: The price is negotiated and put under contract in early June and closes 60 days later (in August). The Augest numbers are reported in Late Sept."

"So the data you read in Late Sept is from negotiations that occured a few months before."

One poster said, "This has mostly to do with statistics and manipulation. In the Netherlands the price increase for individual homes in my area over the last 15 years is +600-1000% (hardly anything below 600%, some exceptions at +1500% already; current appreciation in my area is still +10% from last year)."

"However, the national realtors (NVM) stats - which are the most widely publicized - show appreciation at just +90% or so over the last 10 years (most of the price jumps occurred in this period), and the official 'Kadaster' which includes all homes sold in the country shows an increase of +300% or so over the last 10 years. Go figure."

"The major problem is that with the national averages we are not talking about the same homes: big homes from 1990 were split into maybe 3 or 6 small apartments, a lot of rental (old, flimsy and relatively cheap) stock entered the market around 2000 and until 2000 all homes that went over EUR 450K were removed from the statistics because they were supposed to be used 'for business investment.'"

"On top of that, the realtors now define the average national home price as 'the average price of the median 50% of homes sold by NVM realtors' (so the 25% cheapest and 25% most expensive properties no longer count). All these factors have masked the surge in prices, and they will probably mask the downward trajectory as well."

"I think the housing stock in the US is a bit more ’stable’ than in Europe, but probably some of the same statistical problems apply. Don’t trust the statistics!"