"The Sting Of A Decline" In New York
Newsday reports from New York. "For the first time in eight years, the median price of a home in Suffolk County dipped compared with the same month last year. Suffolk County dropped 2.5 percent to $390,000 last month from $400,000 in October 2005. Nassau's median home price, which dropped about 5.5 percent last month to $472,300, had already begun its decline. In August, its median price fell 1 percent, to $495,000, and in September, it fell 4 percent, to $480,000."
"Along with decreasing prices, the housing inventory has increased, the data showed. It would take 12.4 months to sell the existing housing supply in Suffolk County last month. In Nassau, that figure was 10.6 months, and in Queens, it was 11.5 months."
"Bethany Marten, a buyers agency in Baldwin, views the readjustment as a needed correction. 'It's no longer 'My house is an endless source of cash for me, and every year I can expect my home to go up 10 to 20 percent.'We had a great party, and the party's over.'"
The Northender. "The word on house prices has rung loud and clear in recent months: the bubble’s burst, the party’s over, the fat lady’s sung, Elvis has left the building. Long Island is feeling the sting of a decline. The disagreement centers around the causes, extent and duration of the decline."
"The Long Island Board of Realtors puts average closing prices at approximately $595,000 for September 2006, down from $635,000 twelve months earlier. The median closing price fell from $500,000 to $480,000 for the same period."
"'Everything was fine until the media got involved,' says (broker) Terry Sciubba. Joyce Styne, VP for Century21 (which has 16 offices throughout Long Island and Queens), agrees that the decline increased significantly when it became a media focus roughly two months ago. She mentions, however, that brokers had seen it coming over the summer."
"'Inventories have built up a lot and that’s a leading indicator, it’s not a trailing indicator. The first thing that happens is that the inventory of unsold homes decreases. The price decline is the second thing that happens,' says Robert Campbell, a Professor of Real Estate and Finance at Hofstra University who jokes that he is not altogether popular with realtors."
"'When you can no longer assume that you’re going to have a capital gain, you start to look at fundamentals. What can I afford to pay? How much is this house really worth to me?' Professor Campbell says."
"Part of the problem is that option ARMs have put houses into the hands of many people, especially during peak market times, who later decide that they can’t afford them after all. Owners can feel compelled to sell, further increasing inventory and driving down prices."
"A related danger, he says, is the large number of 'piggyback' home equity loans taken out in recent years. 'Ten years ago, we didn’t have piggyback home equity loans. In 2001, 20 percent of new purchases included piggyback home equity loans. Last year, it was 42 percent,' Professor Campbell says."
"Terry Sciubba believes the worst will be over as soon as the media eases up. She tells the story of a client who recently accepted a bid of $1.4 million dollars on a house on High Farms Road in Old Brookville. 'Newsday came out saying the prices had dropped ten percent."
"'My customer read the article, called me up the next day and dropped her price $140,000. Of course my seller would not sell, because her house was priced correctly. But that’s what going on, the news media has created this frenzy,' Sciubba says."
"'Prices have come down a bit, but that’s okay because they needed to readjust. It’s not like a house that lists for 600,000 is ever going to be 200,000,' she says."
"The party is over, but there are still refreshments left,' Styne says. Even if declines continue in the coming couple of years, most people...might also agree, however, that a Zen attitude will serve the investor well."
The Long Island Business Press. "At the height of the residential real estate frenzy in 2004, Christine Boccio traded a six-figure software sales job for a gig that should have let her set her own hours and paycheck. But the career change to real estate agent wasn’t as smooth as she had hoped. Deals unraveled at the last minute, and sometimes Boccio earned only 10 percent of her former salary."
"'You get to a point where [you] need to make your move. It became impossible for me to survive,' she said."
"She’s not the only one getting out. Several weeks ago, Renee Weinberg posted an ad for a new clerical assistant to cover weekend open houses and order baby gifts for potential clients; three real estate agents applied, including one from her Long Beach office."
"For the 12 months ending in September, the Island’s real estate industry lost 600 jobs – largely agents bringing the total still standing to slightly less than 17,750, according to economist Pearl Kamer."
"'We have more people, probably, than we need,' said Bob Herrick, whose agent count has dropped from 80 to 60 in three years. 'The booster rocket has run out of fuel and now it’s going to coast.'"
"Double-digit appreciation is over, and there are plenty of houses to go around. In September, regional inventory rose 52 percent above 2005 numbers. Now that buyers have plenty to choose from, they’re waiting, leading to a standoff between buyers and sellers. Sales suffer. 'I know a lot of people were really having a tough time, and they were people who were agents for much longer than me,' said Boccio."
The Times Union. "Foreclosures have been rising this year in the Capital Region as overextended homeowners struggle to keep up with higher interest rates and rising property taxes. For the first nine months, 471 properties entered some stage of foreclosure in the five-county metropolitan area, more than quadruple the number a year ago."
"At least one long-time real estate broker expects things to get worse. 'This is just the start,' said D. Wallace Bryce of Bryce Real Estate Inc. in Troy. 'I'm getting more and more calls. People have to sell immediately. The guys on a shoestring, it's going to be a washout.'"
"Bryce blames job loss, people who tapped into their home's equity and now can't keep up with payments, and property taxes that in Rensselaer County are expected to climb 25 percent next year."
"People who bought at or near the top of the real estate cycle are the most vulnerable. As houses have grown more expensive, mortgage brokers came up with new types of loans to make the early years of a mortgage more affordable."
"For the first time since November 2000, house prices in the Capital Region in September declined from the year before. The median price was down 4 percent, to $187,000, according to the Greater Capital Association of Realtors Inc. 'Folks are overextended,' said Anthony Gucciardo, an associate broker in Latham. He said those who bought more house than they could afford are now struggling."