"Balance Definitely Tips Toward Buyer": MAR
The Massachusetts realtors report the December numbers. "The number of single-family homes sold in Massachusetts fell 16.6 percent in December from December 2005 and the median selling price declined 5.4 percent to $335,000 as the slowdown in the state's housing market continued."
"'It's good to see the market coming back to some balance. At this point, the balance definitely tips toward the buyer,' said Doug Azarian, president of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors."
"The number of condominiums sold fell 8.2 percent from a year ago to 1,493 units. The number of Massachusetts single family homes sold in December fell to 2,980 from 3,574 for the same month a year ago."
"Inventory figures for December 2006 show a slight 2.9 percent increase over December 2005, with 30,651 homes on the current market compared to 29,771 homes last year. This translates into 10.3 months of supply in December 2006."
"The number of condos for sale is up 13.7 percent from 14,581 units last December to 16,581 in December 2006. This represents 11.1 months of supply, up from 9 months in December 2005."
The talking points. "December median price declined 5.4% from a year ago (from $354,000 to $335,000), 11% below its peak (spike) of $375,000 in July-August, 2005. Last month’s sales total was lowest December volume since 1991, when 2,168 homes were sold. On month-to-month basis, home sales decreased 8.2% from November to December."
The Boston Globe. "Amid new evidence the state is still struggling to emerge from the housing downturn, economists said it is likely prices for single-family houses will continue to decline this year."
"'We're working through the correction,' said Larissa Duzhansky, an economist with a Lexington economics and consulting firm. She predicted, 'We're going to see home prices going down in 2007.'"
"Jim Gibbons, an agent in Stoughton, said that in some communities in his territory prices were down more than the 5.4 percent statewide average, as much as 7 percent or 8 percent. 'It's going to be the same story this year, big inventories, big selection,' he said. 'Your house has to be the best house out there in the best condition and priced aggressively, or it's going to sit.'"
"Gibbons said the current situation, a flood of houses for sale, is unique because there are so many types of sellers in the market. In addition to those who want to trade up, there are investors trying to dump properties purchased three or four years ago at higher prices, homeowners unable to meet rising payments on adjustable-rate mortgages or threatened with foreclosure, and empty-nesters eager to downsize."
"'We've never had that at the same time,' he said."
From Worcester magazine. "A quick drive through one Main South neighborhood is a telling snapshot. Weave along the industrial back roads off Washington Square, and you can spot condo action dotting the route."
"It’s not the only neighborhood like this. The country is condo-happy, but the market has slowed so remarkably that is it surprising the development continues. The market sags, yet we build."
"Real estate agents are quick to blame the sagging market on the media. But numbers are numbers. The University Lofts have been on the market since June, and three have been sold out of 34. Three have sold of the eight built (46 total will be built) as part of The Residences at Vernon Hill. Out of the 24 units at The Granite Mansion, eight have sold in a year and a half on the market."
"Two big things happened to add to the inflated market, according to Jane Fine, president of Fine Properties Inc. in Worcester. 'The 55-and-older community started,' she says. 'Instead of doing one or two projects, they are blasted all over the place. In Worcester, the three-deckers have been subdivided into condos along with two-family houses. And with prices going up, they are sitting.'"
"'There is 10 months of supply, meaning condos for sale,' says Leif Rosseland, senior VP for Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Worcester and Shrewsbury. 'Back in 2004, I would venture to guess it was less than half that. Ten months of inventory is a lot. It’s usually gauged at five months. We’re definitely in a buyer’s market in the condominium world.'"
"Rosseland adds, 'There were more foreclosures this year because of those wacky, fangled purchase agreements that weren’t necessarily beneficial for those signing on the dotted line.'"
"Rosseland and others in the business first noticed the plummet in May 2005, and it has 'only spiraled in the last 18 months.'"
"Alyce Hill has been publishing magazines pertaining to condomimiums for about 20 years. In 1990, she said, the market went crazy, and countless condo developments went bankrupt. By 1996, builders were going full tilt again, and that includes the Worcester market. 'It went really, really crazy from 2000 through now,' says Hill. She can rattle off pages of developments in Worcester."
"'The builders who were planning to make a condo project are planning to do apartments now,' says Hill. 'The whole real estate market is correcting itself. It’s been crazy in New England for five years. It’s gone down about 20%, but I don’t think it’ll go down further.'"
"The biggest run-up, according to Scott Hayman, for the City Manager’s Executive Office of Economic and Neighborhood Development, has been condo conversions. Lots of three-, four- or even five-family dwellings have been and are being converted into condos. 'That often happens at the tail end of a market cycle,' says Hayman. 'So it skews things a lot. There has been a flood of these conversions.'"
"The hottest trend, and one that started as a reaction to movements in cities such as Lowell, Boston and Providence, was the conversion of old, distressed factory buildings into condominiums.'A lot of this idea has to do with the energy,' says Hill. 'You’ll see it with Worcester such as with Biscuit Place, where you can walk to the train station. You can take the train. You can work in Boston. You can walk to a restaurant. It’s the New York mentality, where you can just go downstairs for everything.'"
"But that idea applies when there is everything downstairs. We’ve said it a hundred times; This is not New York. This is not Boston. Take a drive through downtown in the heart of a weekend night, and it’s not that difficult to breeze through. Developers and analysts of the Worcester area, though, say a lot of the building that has taken place in the past five years is based on hope rather than the present situation."
"Many developers across the country hope to salvage their investment by changing strategy until the condo market turns around by going rental. Developer Bill Bibaud’s got faith, but right now, he’s not going crazy. The units he converted in the old Charlie’s Surplus factory and other buildings are rentals for now."
"'I’m only doing rentals because the market [for condominiums] is not there,' says Bibaud. 'The conversion market seems to have slowed down quite a bit. The market started going bad about six months ago.'"
"'A lot of the investors bought the cheap multis and turned them into condos. It’s a Catch 22. I follow the closure market and you’re seeing a lot of those same units going into foreclosure. There are a couple on the West Side. Initially, they sold for $250,000 and are now in foreclosure. It was a bit of an artificial bubble that hit,' says Bibaud."