"Going Through A Period Of Nail Biting"
The Charlotte Observer reports from North Carolina. "The coastal housing boom of the past few years has come to a screeching halt. In Myrtle Beach, new and existing condo sales dropped 37 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to Market Opportunity Research Enterprises."
"In Wilmington, a less condo-driven market, existing home sales fell 17 percent in the same July-to-September period, according to the N.C. Association of Realtors. Nearby Brunswick County, home to miles of beach towns, saw a 64 percent drop, while there was a 30 percent drop in sales on the Outer Banks."
"'There is going to be a huge number of units on the market next year, and lots of them vacant,' said Carl Van Horn of Market Opportunity Research."
"There are about 10,000 condos on the market along South Carolina's Grand Strand, several thousand more than a year ago, according to Tom Maeser, a real estate marketing analyst in Myrtle Beach."
"Van Horn said that many of the buyers of coastal property in the past two years have been speculators or investors who purchase a property with the intention of selling it for more in the near term. Continued drop in demand could leave them, as well as developers, with unsold inventory and no cash to pay back their loans."
"In the Myrtle Beach area, Tidelands Bank now has 90 percent of its total portfolio in residential and commercial real estate. 'If the downturn in housing continues, there will be banks out there under stress because developers can't turn enough inventory to service their debt,' said Tony Plath, a professor of finance at UNC-Charlotte."
"'We've already seen developers in other parts of the country falter,' said Plath. 'We're definitely going to go through a period of nail biting.'"
The Sun News from South Carolina. "Homeowners, reacting to a slowing real estate market, are remodeling their homes instead of moving into new ones, according to a survey. 'If I sell my house and want to move up to at least something as good, it's going to cost me as much if not more, so I'm better off remodeling my home,' said Tom Maeser, market analyst."
"Indeed, many Strand builders are reopening the remodeling segment of their business - which they may have closed during the building boom of the past several years, Maeser said."
"'With housing prices falling and interest rates higher than they were a few years ago, homeowners are still remodeling, but with an emphasis on managing costs,' said Dan Fritschen, author of the national survey."
The Athens Banner Herald from Georgia. "Is Athens overbuilt? If Athens-Clarke County's housing growth continues on the same course it has followed for the past several years, a housing surplus will continue, county planners said."
"Builders in Athens-Clarke County appear to be getting way ahead of the county's population in terms of housing needs, according to projected figures compiled by the Athens-Clarke County Planning Department."
"In 2005, the county issued permits for 3,993 more housing units than population projections indicated were needed, according to statistics available in the community assessment section of the 2008 Athens-Clarke County comprehensive plan."
"'There was a housing surplus of about 2,000 units just in single-family permits for 2005,' said county Planning Director Brad Griffin. 'There (currently) is a lot of (housing) product on the ground that's empty, new and used.'"
"The housing disparity is predicted to grow even larger in 2010 where permits for housing will exceed need by 7,834 units, based on permitting and population trends."
"For District 8 Commissioner States McCarter, there is no question about whether Athens is overbuilt. 'We have a surplus now. At any given time there, are 20-something houses for sale in Cedar Creek,' McCarter said."
"Sean Hogan, president of the Athens Area Homebuilders Association, says he doesn't think Athens is overbuilt, but he acknowledged that any market will bear periods of surplus regarding certain types of housing. He cited the proliferation of condominiums, largely marketed to students, as a building factor that has affected the apartment market to some extent."
"Hogan adds that the building industry is a self-regulating type of business and that the community and region continues growing. '(Builders) won't continue putting sticks and bricks together when the market is not there for it,' Hogan said."
"Real estate broker Steve Sgarlato, who has worked in the profession for 11 years, said the townhouse project is a perfect example of overbuilding in Athens. 'You can drive around and see these phase-two projects, like that stuff on Whitehall, just sitting there with grass growing,' Sgarlato said. 'Some people are figuring out they can't rent or sell what they're building, so they stopped building.'"
"What has hurt, said Athens Apartment Association president Ernie Smallman, is that in order to compete with the 'kiddie condos,' many apartment properties responded by lowering rents. 'Our rent levels are not what they were four years ago,' Smallman said. 'Our margins are much lower.'"
"UGA economist Jeff Humphreys said the Athens market, at least for single-family homes, is only temporarily overbuilt and that economically, that could mean home prices might decline in the market. In the past five years, home values have risen by 29 percent, somewhat higher than the 28 percent statewide and 24 percent in Atlanta, Humphreys said. The national increase was by 56 percent."
"'The market is telling us that Athens is no more or less overbuilt than the rest of the state,' he said."
The Savannah Morning News from Georgia. "I was surprised to hear from so many people after my recent column about the limited options in the local housing market for middle-income buyers. Most readers appreciated the fact that I raised the issue, but several let me know that the reality was even more difficult than I described."
"Here and there one can find evidence of a market correction. One reader pointed to a house, an actual house, not a condo, in the Historic District that has been reduced in price by $76,000 (almost 20 percent) in recent months."
"Elsewhere, out near Bull and 37th streets, a building that was listed as a condominium complex is now being marketed as rental apartments."
"Now, none of this means that the local housing market is crashing. But it appears that something has to give. Either prices have to come down, or wages have to go up, or a hoard of wealthy folks from somewhere else suddenly have to enter the market."