"Housing Slump Now Threatening Big Bets"
A report from the Wisconsin State Journal. "A housing bubble didn't burst and the market didn't crash, but a housing boom of nearly a decade came to an end last year in south-central Wisconsin. The high inventory meant that even attractive homes in desirable neighborhoods sometimes had trouble finding buyers. "
"David Schield put his house on the market too late to cash in on the housing boom. Schield bought a house two years ago as an investment to fix up, sell and make some money. After the renovation was finished, he listed the house in Madison's West Side Crestwood neighborhood with a for-sale-by-owner company in April."
"When it didn't sell by August, he hired a real estate agent. He reduced the price to $224,500, but the house still hasn't sold, and he said the house's ongoing expenses threaten to push him under the break-even point. 'It took me a little longer to do the work I wanted to do,' Schield said. 'I hit the market when it just dried up last year.'"
"When a woman who lived on the other side of Jane Fitchen's duplex sold her unit after a week on the market last June for the $250,000 asking price, Fitchen decided it might be time to put her unit up for sale. The other woman's unit didn't have a remodeled kitchen and bathroom like Fitchen's unit, so Fitchen priced her unit higher at $269,000. It didn't sell during the summer or fall and now it's priced between $239,000 and $259,000."
"'It's been really dismal,' Fitchen said. 'What's really frustrating is the one next door had not been updated at all.'"
"What's puzzling is that the local downturn came even as interest rates have been stable and employment remained strong, two conditions that usually signal a strong housing market. 'I don't know why things have slowed down here,' said Chad Wuebben, president of the Madison Area Builders Association. 'I can't explain it other than people have gotten a little nervous.'"
"Greed, fear and publicity were three factors that contributed to the end of the housing boom, said John Tuccillo, former chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. 'A lot of people out there decided that housing was a get-rich-quick scheme,' he said. 'Ultimately, greed overwhelmed the market.'"
The Capital Times from Wisconsin. "The boom times may be history for the local real estate market, but a leading industry official is optimistic that the worst has passed."
"'I think it will be a good year,' said Realtors Association of South Central Wisconsin executive director John Deininger. 'Not necessarily another record, but I don't doubt that it will be in the top two or three (for sales).'"
"The most problematic issue for the industry remains the glut of homes and condos for sale. The 5,211 homes and condos for sale at the end of the year are 29.8 percent more than at the end of 2005 and 105.1 percent more than at the end of 2004."
"'The bubble is a coast story,' he said. 'I think the slowdown was a fairly soft landing. The question is what will happen as we move into the spring.'"
The Daily Herald from Illinois. "Despite all the hype, Elgin is not a bustling downtown - yet. 'We were thinking people were going to come through here,' says Elgin Books co-owner Gloria Theofanis. 'It seems like they are building (the townhouses and condos), but I don't know if they are selling them.'"
"'Unless they are imaginary people buying them,' she adds."
"Suburbs across the region have their own fretting small-business owners waiting for customers - waiting for big condo buildings to sell and rows of townhouses to finally fill with families. The months-long housing slump is now threatening the big bets of mayors and real estate planners who are banking on citylike housing and businesses to rejuvenate their decaying downtowns."
"Certainly not all are in danger of going belly up if the housing slump trips into a free fall, but experts are questioning just how many condos and townhouses the suburban market - especially a slow one - can handle."
"Some of the numbers that can offer answers aren't rosy. For example, some suburbs are grappling with a clear backlog of condos. Elgin has a 15-month supply of condos priced between $200,000 and $300,000."
"Even Arlington Heights, which already has a rather developed and trendy downtown, has a nine-month supply of condos priced between $200,000 and $300,000. And these figures don't include many condo buildings on the way, or those for sale strictly through the developer or by-owner listings."
"'We are definitely in a slowdown,' said Bob Headrick, a property appraiser and partner at Naperville-based Appraisal Research, which compiles the condo supply data. 'And in some cases, we are seeing some declining prices.'"
"Both political leaders and developers have inherent incentives to downplay any effect a housing slump may be having on their plans. Such comments, they fear, can scare away buyers. 'I had a Realtor say to me, 'I wish the media would stop all this negativeness because it is really hurting sales,' Headrick said."
"Some suburban leaders grudgingly concede they've had some worries. 'I would be lying to say there wasn't some concern,' says John Lobaito, Mundelein's village administrator. Mundelein started its bet in 2000, creating a downtown environment built around a village park, village hall, and more than 700 townhouses and condos on 100 acres of an aging industrial park."
"Sales started on the bulk of the housing in February, and recent reports show 54 of 484 condos are under contract."
"Most suburban leaders remain outwardly bullish on their downtown markets. 'I don't think anybody thinks this is going to be a real bust,' said Elgin Mayor Ed Schock. 'I'm not going to panic.'"
"In the coming years, that retiree boom will hit with a force that could both define and defy the market, said Steve Hovany, who has consulted with numerous suburbs on downtown developments. However, that demographic bonus may also be playing a role in today's less-than-rosy suburban market picture. Most empty nesters must first sell their ranch houses before buying downtown, and a slow market makes that more difficult."
"'A lot of these moves are very discretionary,' Hovany says. 'In times like these, people put off decisions. 'About a year from now everyone would have worked out all their issues,' he predicts, before adding with a soothing voice, 'This too shall pass.'"
"For Theofanis, though, the more critical question remains not if it will pass, but when. 'We are running out of time,' she says sitting in her empty Elgin Books on a weekday afternoon. 'We are running out of money.'"