"If This Isn't The Bust, It's A Sobering Slowdown"
The Naples News reports from Florida. "After a rocky year in 2006, local Realtors expect the market to smooth out in 2007. 'You know I’m optimistic,' said Wes Brodersen, past president of the Bonita Springs-Estero Association of Realtors. 'If I wasn’t, I wouldn’t be in real estate.'"
"In the Naples area, the year ended with more than 11,000 listings, a 16-month supply of homes, on the market. That could increase by 1,000 or more this month, with the height of season."
"In Lee County, there were 13,330 single-family homes, and another 8,559 condominiums listed for sale on the MLS last week. That works out to a more than 17-month supply of single-family homes and about a three-year supply of condos on the market."
"There seems to be an end in sight to the down market, said (broker) Brett Ellis in Fort Myers. 'I’m starting to see a pick-up over last year, and I think what we’ve just come off of is a year of heartache and misery as buyers sat on the sidelines waiting sellers out to come down on prices,' he said."
"Now, sellers are starting to listen to the Realtors and adjusting their prices to where they should be instead of where they want them to be, Ellis said. 'Last year there was not much buyer confidence,' he said. 'The market felt like it was floating in space. It was quiet. It was eerie because the buyers weren’t there. They weren’t on the same wavelength as the sellers. So nothing happened.'"
"Since prices have come down in Southwest Florida, there are more buyers able to afford to make purchases, he said. A small home that sold for $170,000 in North Fort Myers in March is now on the market for $130,000. A condo in Cape Coral that was listed at $275,000 has recently been reduced to $230,000, Ellis said."
"Homes are not worth today what they were last year, or even six or eight months ago,' he said."
"Since the end of 2005, property values have fallen an average of 20 percent in Southwest Florida, said Ellis. Transactions were off 40 to 50 percent for single-family homes throughout 2006 in the Naples area, compared to a year earlier, he said."
"Realtors don’t expect to ever again see the kind of run-up in prices that sellers experienced in 2005. Median home prices appreciated 40 to 50 percent. 'That was stupid and everyone is paying for it now,' said Brodersen."
"With the cool-down in the market, some Realtors have left their jobs for other careers or have moved to other states seeking better opportunities. Ellis said 2,500 members of the Realtor Association of Greater Fort Myers and the Beach did not pay their annual dues on time. The deadline was Dec. 15, and it has been extended to January to help those who might be hurting for money, Ellis said."
"If those Realtors don’t renew, the association will lose almost 40 percent of the primary board members, he said. The association’s membership grew from 2,735 in July 2003 to 5,884 in July 2006."
"The market may not have hit bottom just yet. But the bottom might be around the corner. 'Buyers know they have more leverage than they did at any time throughout last year,' said Ellis."
The St Petersburg Times. "In a Jan. 1, 2006, column on the transforming power of redevelopment, I wrote this: 'People who visit North Pinellas a year from now will be shocked by the differences.' Well, maybe not so shocked. That's the problem with new-year predictions. Stuff happens."
"A year ago, speculators were gobbling up land here, and their appetite seemed insatiable. Their starry-eyed optimism rubbed off on government officials."
"In that column a year ago, I forecast that the place most transformed in 2006 would be Clearwater Beach. The column also predicted that the sounds of construction would ring across downtown Clearwater, where numerous residential and retail projects were supposed to get under way during 2006."
"So here we are at the end of 2006, and the picture has dimmed. If this isn't the bust that follows a boom, it is at least a sobering slowdown. Now, those pretty artists' drawings are nailed to posts erected in front of vacant lots where there is no movement except the wind swirling the dust. Projects large and small appear dead in the water, and 'For Sale' signs sprout like weeds."
"Developers avoid talking about missed construction deadlines, or they try to put a good face on changes in their plans. New construction hasn't stopped, but it has become the province of those developers with the deepest pockets and the most experience."
"On S Gulfview Boulevard, only a ragged chunk of the old Holiday Inn Sunspree remains, to be replaced starting early next year with Cheezem's Marquesas condominium. What about the other beach projects that were supposed to kick off in 2006? Next to the Marquesas site, a lovely sign announces 'Enchantment - Emerging in November.' Make that November 2006. But no Enchantment rises yet on Clearwater Beach."
"Next door, the Clearwater Grande condo tower was supposed to replace the squat Quality Hotel, but those plans are shelved for now. Nearby, the 13-story Entrada condo project is on hold."
"Where the Adam's Mark Hotel once welcomed guests, a developer's plans for a condo-hotel have been delayed. On down S Gulfview, there is no sign of the Marbella and Sienna Sands condominiums, plans on hold. The old Days Inn eyesore is gone, but property owner is talking with the city about allowing the empty lot to be used for temporary beach parking. And I've touched on only the biggest ones."
"One bright spot, for those who rent, is that the conversion of rental apartments to condominiums appears to have slowed in the second half of 2006."