"True Vulnerability" Lies In High Prices
The Journal News reports from New York. "The median price of a single-family house declined last quarter in Westchester County for the first time in nearly 12 years, and further price declines can be expected early this year, the Westchester-Putnam MLS said yesterday. Buyer resistance to relentlessly escalating prices finally broke through the market in 2006, the MLS concluded in its quarterly report."
"Inventories rose and sales dropped for every type of housing in Westchester and Putnam in the fourth quarter of 2006, year over year. Westchester's median house price of $630,000 was down 3.4 percent from a year earlier. Condominium median prices dropped by 2.3 percent to $375,000. Year-end inventories of all housing types grew by 20.9 percent in Westchester and 14.9 percent in Putnam."
"Many sellers today are demanding prices that their neighbors had obtained during home sales of a year earlier, said P. Gilbert Mercurio, CEO of the Westchester-Putnam Board of Realtors. In the meantime, some buyers 'think there are fire sales going on,' he said. 'They're waiting each other out,' he added."
"Clare Santora said she put her three-bedroom raised ranch in Cortlandt on sale in late September for $469,900. She has since dropped the price to $440,000. One buyer backed out of a deal in the fall, she said."
"'Most of the problem I'm having is people think the taxes are too high,' said Santora. With the state STAR tax-relief program, the taxes are $8,900, she said."
"Agent Cathy Duff-Poritzky said sales strategies have changed. 'It's not 2005 or 2004, when things were flying off the shelves. I think it's a very normal market,' she said."
"Nicholas Misch, an associate broker in Yorktown Heights, said buyers are waiting on the sidelines for now. 'Obviously the market's lost a lot of steam. It's a good thing,' he said."
"The good news is that the Lower Hudson Valley hasn't experienced the overconstruction of new housing that has led to boom-and-bust cycles in areas such as Florida, California and Nevada, the report said. The region's 'true vulnerability' lies in the high prices that housing commands."
The Republican from Massachusetts. "Real estate is considered a somewhat reliable investment: homeowners expect to buy low and sell higher, but the equation isn't foolproof."
"Consider, for example, the fate of homeowners who are forced to sell a house purchased in the midst of a real estate boom that later went bust. They're faced with the predicament of having bought high, and being forced to sell for lower than the balance on their loan."
"With the median price of a single-family home increasing annually for 12 years, many people who were priced out of the market were enticed in with attractive loan offers including adjustable-rate and interest-only mortgages. Unfortunately, for many it was a ticket to a foreclosure auction."
"Foreclosure petitions soared nearly 70 percent in the Bay State in 2006, capping the end of the worst year for the state's housing market in over a decade, according to figures compiled by The Warren Group. And foreclosures are expected to climb again in 2007."
"It's a phenomenon that seems to occur every decade or so, and, for many Massachusetts homeowners, the time is now."
The Daily Democrat from New Hampshire. "Dickinson Development Corp.'s waterfront plans are built on a foundation of high-end residential housing units expected to sell for a much greater amount than the current Dover market sees."
"The current draft of the proposed development still includes the roughly 180 residential units, but their makeup has changed and the price has gone up. The plan now includes townhomes, condos and flats, which will range in price from $379,000 to $700,000."
"During an interview at Foster's Daily Democrat last week, Mark Dickinson, company president, said the condos would start in the $400,000 range but during a phone interview today Dickinson said the price was $379,000. Dickinson said the earlier reporting of figures was incorrect."
"'The residential pricing of $265 per square foot is a reasonable estimate, but one subject to considerable deviation,' the August report said. 'This is because, despite a thorough investigation of the local and comparable markets, only relatively indirect market comparables with prices ranging well above and below the estimated level were uncovered.'"
"The city's consultant's report noted that should pre-selling the units not achieve the targeted prices, 'the development could be delayed or abandoned with the loss only of up-front risk capital.'"
"According to the city's assessing office, the average assessed value of condominiums in the city is increasing, but has yet to top $200,000. The most current data comes from 2007, where the average condominium rings in at $175,326. Consultant Barry Abramson's report notes Dickinson's condo prices are 'well above the prior top of the market in Dover.'"
"President Mark Dickinson agrees there is currently nothing comparable in the city of Dover. 'We are definitely creating a market,' Dickinson said."
"Dickinson's report calls into question the quality of the construction. 'We consider the pro forma's construction cost estimates, especially for the residential component, at $100 to $118 per square foot of gross habitable building area, to be lower than we would expect,' the report said. 'This raises a question about the quality of construction.'"